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Fantasy Implications from Free Agency

March 30, 2013 By Leave a Comment

While there are some free agents still on the market, most of the big names have already signed and are gearing up for the 2013 season.  For those of you looking to get a head start on your fantasy research, scoutPRO expert Nelson Sousa is here to talk about the fantasy implications of all the free agent moves.  Let’s see what he has to say:

Wes Welker

With Welker heading west to Denver, he will continue to compete with some talented players for receptions, just like in New England.  The only difference is he must now compete with WRs rather than TEs (Demaryius Thomas/Eric Decker vs. Rob Gronkowski/ Aaron Hernandez).  Although Decker runs shorter routes in a similar fashion to Welker, I think they can coexist along with Thomas.  On the flip side, I see Thomas’s value going up.  He will continue to be a threat on deep routes, which will lead to explosive plays for the 4th year pro.  As for Welker, he will continue to be a valuable fantasy WR and his role in Denver will be basically the same.  All in all, more weapons for Peyton Manning means nothing but good things for him.  His first year in Denver was a huge success, and adding a weapon like Welker will only add to his value.

Adding Welker will only help the Broncos already talented group of WRs.

Steven Jackson

Honestly, I haven’t been a fan of his for a few years now.  But that was in part to him being on a terrible St. Louis Rams team.  With him now in Atlanta, my views have changed.  The Falcons have one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL, with a bunch of guys to account for on each and every play.  With that being said, I think Jackson is going to have a really good year.  He won’t face many guys in the box due to Julio Jones and Roddy White garnering so much attention on the outside.  Michael Turner ran out of gas two years ago and still managed to put up decent numbers in this offense (double digit TDs both years).  Jackson still has some gas left in the tank, and he could have a monster year for the defending NFC South champions.  I could see a 1,300 yard, 15 TD season, while at a minimum he should be able to top 1,000 yards with 10 TDs.

Percy Harvin

While he was acquired via trade rather than free agency, nonetheless he is a big time fantasy player and will continue to do the same thing in Seattle.  The Seahawks are a run-heavy team, but they are much different from Minnesota.  Harvin was having a really good year in 2012 before he got injured and I expect the same from him in 2013.  If he can stay healthy, he will no doubt be a top fantasy WR.

Jared Cook

The Rams shelled out some big time cash ($16 million guaranteed) for the former Tennessee Titan, so I expect them to actually use Cook in their offense unlike the Titans.  If they don’t, Rams GM Les Snead will be sharpening his resume in a few years.  Since the Rams already have Lance Kendricks at TE, I believe Rams HC Jeff Fisher is looking to go New England style with two TE sets.  Kendricks and Cook are different types of players just like Gronk and Hernandez.  Cook is a big, fast and physical target, while Kendricks is pretty quick for a TE.  I really like him this year and will be interested to see how this plays out.

Cook is one of the most physically gifted players in the NFL.

Mike Wallace

Wallace reaped the benefits of free agency by signing a lucrative deal with the Dolphins worth over $60 million.  I am a little unsure about this and I think the jury is definitely still out on him.  Dolphins QB Ryan Tannehill is a good player, but he is not Ben Roethlisberger.  He will now being lining up opposite Brian Hartline, who is a good WR, but nothing special.  I think it could be a struggle for Wallace in his first year as a Dolphin.  Defenses will look to take away the deep ball from him by playing man coverage with a safety deep.  That is where he does a ton of damage, which could no doubt affect his fantasy value.

Danny Amendola

With Wes Welker gone, Amendola is now the man at WR in New England.  Since Donald Jones is currently slated to be the #2 WR, more moves are in store for the Patriots.  There is no way they are going to go into the season with him at that position.  Something is going to happen, whether it is a trade or free agent acquisition (Emmanuel Sanders?).  Along the same lines, I think they are going to run more 3 TE sets this year with Jake Ballard as the 3rd TE, and put a greater emphasis on the power running game.  Back to Amendola, he is a feisty, motivated player who has had some bad breaks with injuries over the past few seasons.  He has had no consistency in his career up until last year, but that was catching passes from Sam Bradford and dealing with the Rams turnstile offensive line.  Now insert Tom Brady and the Patriots dynamic offense into that last sentence and the future could be bright.  I will wait to see what else the Patriots do this offseason before I make a final judgment on him.

Reggie Bush

This was one I called from the beginning, and signing with the Lions was something that just made sense for him.  They are looking for a guy to replace Jahvid Best, who has been severely affected by concussions his entire career.  I like Bush this year and am going to be targeting him in my drafts.  He has the potential for 75 catches in this offense as he has the ability to line up all over the field (backfield, slot, out wide).  With defenses focusing on trying to contain Calvin Johnson, Bush should be able to get some favorable matchups that he can exploit.  He is going to get a full workload (Leshoure will get some short yardage carries and the occasional drive).  Factoring in all of these things, I see the potential for a big year from Bush.

Bush could be in for a big year in 2013.

Greg Jennings

By signing with Minnesota, it looks as though Jennings chose money over winning and competing for Super Bowls.  Green Bay made him an offer, and there were reports that New England did as well.  If this is true, I’m not sure how you can justify choosing Christian Ponder over Aaron Rodgers or Tom Brady.  The good news about Minnesota is they do not have many weapons and Jennings will no doubt get a ton of targets.  Teams will continue to focus on containing Adrian Peterson, giving Jennings the opportunity to surprise some of the people who are already writing him off.  He will still go fairly high in drafts, but I believe he will fly a bit under-the-radar.  I could see him going in the 6th round, and I would have no problem drafting him there.

Dustin Keller

Keller had some ups and downs in his time with the New York Jets.  He had his moments with some big games, but could never find any consistency.  With the combination of bad QB play, a bad OC in Tony Sparano and just an overall bad team, it wasn’t exactly a recipe for success.  Couple that with some injuries problems in 2012 and Keller was probably thrilled to be a free agent.  Ryan Tannehill is heading into his second year in the league and will improve, but there is no better safety valve for a young QB than a TE.  Additionally, Mike Wallace is going to draw a ton of attention from opposing defenses when he is on the field.  This situation could lead to Keller catching a lot of passes and being Tannehill’s best friend out on the field.

Rashard Mendenhall

I have been high on Ryan Williams for a while now, so it was a shame to see the Cardinals sign Mendenhall.  New Cardinals HC Bruce Arians trusts him from his time working with him in Pittsburgh.  Mendenhall could get a shot to carry the load at RB.  Both guys have had injury problems, so it will be interesting to see what plays out with the situation.

Shonn Greene

Many were surprised when he signed with the Titans, but personally I was not.  They need to keep Chris Johnson fresh and can’t wear him down.  His 2009 season when he went for over 2,000 yards may have messed with his head.  Nowadays, he is always dancing and looking to hit the homerun, rather than just trying to gain what is there.  All the fault cannot be put on his shoulders as the ball is often forced to him.  With Greene now in town, maybe he can apply a little pressure to Johnson and force him to step up his game.

Will Chris Johnson step his game up with Greene in town?

Danny Woodhead and Ronnie Brown

With Brown re-signing and Woodhead coming in from New England, this could ultimately put a damper on Ryan Mathews’ value.  I have been a fan of his, however he just hasn’t been able to put it all together (did have a nice run down the stretch in 2011).  With a new coaching staff in town, that should mean nothing but good things for the offensive line, which was nothing short of pathetic in 2012.  It remains to be seen how this will impact Mathews.  While he may drop in draft position, that could present a buying opportunity for owners willing to give him another shot.

How will Mathews' stock be affected by Woodhead and Brown?

Brandon Myers

He will replace Martellus Bennett in New York.  Personally, I don’t think he is all that good.  He will catch some passes, but don’t expect anything special.  The Giants offense is the Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz show and will continue to be in 2013.  Also, they don’t feature the TE as much as other teams around the league.  If you look back to last year, Bennett started the season on fire, catching a TD in each of the first three games.  After week three, he was basically nowhere to be found the rest of the season.

James Casey

Casey signed a three-year deal with the Eagles worth $14 million.  He will be an afterthought to most, which will allow you to pick him up much later in drafts.  While playing for the Texans, he lined up all over the field (fullback, H-back, tight end).  His versatility is something that new Eagles HC Chip Kelly loves and was one of the main reasons they targeted him.  Look for him to pair with Brent Celek in two TE sets, with Casey being the Aaron Hernandez of the offense.  Celek will be the in-line guy and focus on blocking.  I think Casey could explode this year and be a great pickup as a 2nd TE.

Delanie Walker

The Titans got one of the best blocking TEs in the NFL when they signed Walker.  While they are going to focus on running the ball, don’t sleep on him.  He had some drop issues last season, but he could get some opportunities with Jared Cook no longer around.

Martellus Bennett 

I think this is a good signing by Chicago.  They desperately need some more weapons for Jay Cutler, and Bennett will provide a big target for him.  He can also block, which is always helpful in the run game.  Overall, he is a solid TE and a nice pickup by the Bears.

Bennett will be a nice addition for Jay Cutler and the Bears.

Thanks for stopping by!  If you like mock drafts, make sure to keep coming back over the next few weeks as Nelson will be updating his right up until the 2013 NFL Draft.  Don’t forget to follow us (@CSAscoutPRO) and Nelson (@The_Franchise12) on Twitter!

 

 

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Week 13 – The Replacements

November 28, 2012 By Leave a Comment

Desperate times call for desperate measures.  With the fantasy playoffs fast approaching, many owners have their backs against the walls trying to make the cut and extend the season. Bye weeks are history, but injury problems only continue piling up, with Bears’ RB Matt Forte at the top of the list of players who went down in Week 12.

Matt Forte's injury is causing headaches for fantasy owners headed towards the playoffs

As a result of all the turmoil in the NFL, many leagues are seeing pickups of players whose names have never before been mentioned in the realm of fantasy football. Some have been eye-catching surprises, while others have barely delivered on already-low expectations. Here is what you need to know:

The emergence of Colin Kaepernick in San Francisco has created a bit of a quarterback controversy, as Alex Smith owners face the frustration of having a fairly reliable quarterback relegated to the bench. Kaepernick has shown himself to be a dynamic run/pass QB, racking up impressive point totals in each of his first two starts, both wins for his club. If you were fortunate enough to pick him up, he is worth a start until further notice, and if he is still available, snatch him up for depth and to keep the competition at bay.

When Willis McGahee went down with a severe knee injury that landed him on the IR, many owners scrambled to pick up Ronnie Hillman as a replacement. Those owners were undoubtedly disappointed when the Broncos went with Knowshon Moreno instead, and the former Georgia Bulldog put in a nice day’s work against the Chiefs while Hillman rode the bench. It seems Denver doesn’t quite trust the rookie with the protection of its most prized asset, Peyton Manning, so look for Moreno to continue getting the majority of snaps going forward.

Knowshon Moreno will have to carry the majority of the workload in McGahee's absence

Bryce Brown stepped into the spotlight on Monday Night on the national stage in the absence of LeSean McCoy for Philadelphia. He scored twice, including a 65 yard rush that made his owners very happy. He had some trouble controlling the ball, which may be a concern, but the Eagles might have little incentive to rush McCoy back without a shot at the postseason – roll with Brown in the meantime.

The abomination that was the Steelers’ performance against lowly division foes the Browns on Sunday was characterized by 8 turnovers – 3 interceptions and 5 fumbles by 5 different players. Right now, Pittsburgh’s replacement backup QB Charlie Batch is on the ‘avoid-at-all-costs’ list, and its corps of RBs aren’t bringing much value to the table, even Rashard Mendenhall, who hasn’t found his groove since returning from injury.

On a related note, Seahawks cornerbacks Richard Sherman and Brandon Browner have been suspended for the use of banned substances, which makes Seattle’s secondary extremely thin. Upcoming matchups with the Bears, Cardinals, Bills, and 49ers make for some prime opportunities for opposing QBs and WRs against the Hawks’ own replacements, a drastically different outlook than suggested by Seattle’s strong defensive numbers this season.

scoutPRO Fantasy Football Expert Nelson Sousa will be appearing on Sirius radio to talk all things fantasy football this Thursday, November 29. Follow scoutPRO on Twitter for the latest details.

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Week 7: Waiver Wire Workout

October 17, 2012 By Leave a Comment

Coming into Week 7, many fantasy owners are reaching a critical point in the season. The league standings are starting to shake out and every matchup starts to mean a little more. Meanwhile, NFL squads are starting to run into their bye weeks, and for the next several Sundays you may be missing some of your best players and there’s nothing you can do about it… or is there?

With holes to fill thanks to bye weeks and the injuries that start to pile up over the course of the NFL season, everyone’s team has holes to fill. This is the time of the season that waiver wire additions and bye-week stand-ins begin to have huge implications for your fantasy team. In order to keep your early season successes rolling or catch up to your competition while they are weakened, it is important to stay ahead of the curve, and the best way to do that is to be informed.

There are plenty of players out there on the waiver wire, waiting for a loving owner to take them home and cherish them. The number one way to know exactly who you want on your roster in a pinch is to have watched them play. Seeing a player’s role in an offense first hand is key to understanding what to expect from them should you give them a chance, so if possible, watching games is a must.

One of the toughest parts of working the waiver wire is looking past hard statistics and accounting for reasonable chance that they will produce in a specific game given the matchup, and game conditions. For example, this past week, some savvy owners probably took a shot on Brandon Stokley, knowing the veteran WR had earned Peyton Manning’s trust in the red zone with 2 TD catches in his last 3 games. With Denver going up against their biggest division foe, the Chargers, in a pivotal Monday Night Football matchup, Stokley scored again and delivered a solid performance to plug the void left by byes and injuries.

DeMarco Murray's injury means he needs to be replaced for a stretch

The other aspect of success when it comes to waiver wire pickups is knowing when to gamble and when to play conservatively in terms of budget. After a big game, Michael Jenkins’ value will likely be greatly inflated, and he will be a fairly attractive fill-in on paper with the Vikings’ offense clicking as of late. Unfortunately, he lacks any foreseeable value when Jerome Simpson returns, so proceed with caution, careful not to overvalue his Week 6 performance. On the other hand, Felix Jones may not be so strong on paper, but if DeMarco Murray can’t go next week due to ligament damage sustained in Week 6, the Cowboys’ #2 appears ready to put in some solid stand-in numbers. He may be worth the investment for a longer term role.

Some aspects of picking players up to fill in boils down to pure luck, but knowing your league rules and the behaviors of your opponents, playing the waiver wire right is a game changing tool in your fantasy arsenal.

 

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Week 5 – Proof is in the Pudding

October 10, 2012 By Leave a Comment

Last year, in Week 5, Victor Cruz put up a 161 yard game, establishing himself as a must-own player after being undrafted in just about every league. So far in 2012, no player has had such a grand coming-out party as Cruz had in 2011, but after Cruz caught 3 more TD passes Sunday afternoon, we were reminded that there are new stars born in this league every week. On the flipside, for some, glory quickly fades as hyped up players fail to meet expectations, causing their eager owners headaches.

It is too early to call them ‘sleepers’ or ‘busts’ yet, but here are some surprising players who have been undervalued and a few some notable names who have been way overvalued in 2012:

Alfred Morris is enjoying a great start to his career

The Good:

Stevan Ridley – Led by perennial stud QB Tom Brady, the Patriots’ offense is on pace to break a team record for first downs and yardage they set last year.  It doesn’t seem like news, but it is most interesting that the team is getting the job done rushing the ball. Yes, despite Brady’s penchant for throwing the ball on a vast majority of downs, the improved Pats run game is being led by Ridley, who has already eclipsed his totals in all categories from last year.  He had an average draft position outside the top 60, but Ridley is ready for the spotlight.

Eli Manning – Somehow, after winning his second Super Bowl, Eli still lives in the shadow of big brother Peyton. This year, his Giants offense looks strong – he has already thrown for more than 1500 yards, second behind only Drew Brees, and the G-Men favor the pass in the Red Zone, averaging a cool 2 TD passes per game. Until anything changes, Eli is making his case as a pretty strong #1 going forward.

Percy Harvin – Things are good in Minnesota for Harvin. The Vikings’ WR had a big Week 5, and it shouldn’t have been a big surprise. His team is 4-1 and he is enjoying a resurgent season catching passes, running the ball, and racking up return yards, which boosts his value significantly in some scoring formats. He is getting plenty of attention when the Vikings get near the goal line, which owners should love.

Reggie Wayne – There is a curious situation developing in Indianapolis. The Colts are not deep in receivers, and rookie Andrew Luck doesn’t really have a solid second WR option behind an old veteran who is past his heyday.  Every defense knows Wayne’s name, but he is still managing to shine on the field in a way he hasn’t for quite a while. At the height of Peyton Manning’s career in Indy, Wayne wouldn’t be considered under-the-radar at all, but his success this season is still surprising and downright impressive.

Alfred Morris – RG3 has been the darling of the fantasy world as a breakout rookie star in Washington, but his teammate Morris has been punishing defenses and racking up points on the ground. The 6th round draft pick out of unglamorous Florida-Atlantic University has produced numbers right on par with the highly touted star RB of this year’s draft class, Trent Richardson, a pleasant surprise for the owners who snatched him up. Again, he was not totally off the radar like Cruz, but Morris is the closest apparition to a true sleeper so far this year.

The Bad:

Cam Newton – Superman’s Carolina Panthers have struggled to win games in 2012, and the rising star QB is largely responsible. His offensive production isn’t bad per se, but it’s a departure from what we saw in his rookie season last year. He has thrown just 4 TD passes, and only gained 209 yards on the ground – relatively low numbers for a guy often pegged to be a human highlight reel. Right now, he is only worth the effort in 2 QB formats and deeper leagues.

Chris Johnson – CJ2K’s owners sound like a broken record with his frustrating performances to date. The former rushing champ isn’t doing anything right. Plus, Tennessee’s run blocking gives him no help, and the team falling behind early in games has meant a focus on the air game trying to play catch up, limiting his touches. Johnson is far and away the biggest disappointment among prominent players who haven’t lost time to injury like Hakeem Nicks or Aaron Hernandez.

LeSean McCoy – Before the season, many experts pegged the Eagles’ dynamic starter as a top 5 RB, but he has struggled to find the endzone, managing just 1 rushing TD so far. The Eagles have been a fantasy nightmare this year, with fumble problems, limited scoring, and plenty of inconsistency. McCoy has a couple of 100 yard games, but until the team dials it up and he starts scoring consistently, consider him a bust given the lofty expectations.

Antonio Gates – With the exception of Malcom Floyd, Chargers QB Philip Rivers hasn’t really clicked with any of his receivers this year, leading to his team ranking 19th overall in pass offense through Week 5. The big TE Gates has only totaled 143 yards in his first 4 games, and has failed to score any touchdowns. With limited depth in the tight end position across the league, Gates’ owners have to be disappointed with one of the elite options failing to deliver.

Andre Johnson – The Houston Texans have jumped out to a 5-0 start, but they have been beating sub-500 teams and their star WR isn’t even leading the team in targets. Things don’t seem quite aligned for Johnson, and he has been a non-factor in some games so far this season. Increased attention from opposing CBs and some dropped passes have brought his value down. He is still a touchdown threat, but owners are still waiting for the player they saw last year return.

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Week 1 Around the NFL: Expect the Unexpected

September 12, 2012 By Leave a Comment

With the first week of NFL action in the books, fantasy owners can now finally take in the first real statistical data of the year and get a closer look at exactly how their rosters stack up. Of course, Week 1 statistics don’t necessarily speak for whole season production; week to week, conditions change as the standings shakes out. Strength of schedule becomes a factor, injuries occur, and players new and old emerge as fantasy standouts and busts.

Week 1 taught us a little bit about how the unexpected can become the norm and even the best of the best can put in some ugly performances in each week of the schedule:

On Sunday night, Peyton Manning returned to the gridiron wearing a jersey that didn’t have a horseshoe on it for the first time in his prolific career. Despite all the questions and uncertainty about the injury troubles that kept him off the field last year, he took care of business and convincingly beat a Steelers team with a very solid defense. His fantasy point production wasn’t quite as incredible as his sparkling 129.9 QB rating, but he certainly looked like his old self. The question now becomes whether or not he will be able to sustain that kind of performance all season long against more tough opponents.

Chris Johnson turned in one of the most disappointing performances of the week, letting owners down with only 4 rushing yards on the day. The former rushing champ will undoubtedly bounce back and have some good weeks, but against some opponents with stronger run defenses, huge questions remain.

Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, Roddy White, and Tony Gonzalez surpassed their already high expectations and combined for some amazing fantasy production against the Chiefs on the road in Kansas City. In many scoring formats, Ryan was the top performer of the week as the Falcons launched their offensive assault for the 2012 season. Teams will react and start to key in on the air game, so owners will have to keep a close eye and be careful not to be overzealous.

There were 5 rookies taking the field as starting QBs for their respective clubs in Week 1. With no real regular season experience, one in particular, Robert Griffin III, had a sparkling debut, leading the Redskins to perhaps the week’s biggest upset over the Saints and putting up some of the week’s biggest fantasy point totals. First overall draft choice Andrew Luck was a slight disappointment in his debut for the Colts. Russell Wilson was up and down, making a few big plays, but averaging only 4.5 yards per attempt and getting sacked often. Ryan Tannehill and Brandon Weeden were among the absolute worst for unfortunate owners who decided to take a chance on them. As the season progresses, some of these players may settle in and improve, others may fade out.

 Kevin Ogletree was one of the surprise best performers of the week as the Cowboys downed the reigning Super Bowl Champion Giants to kick off the season. Savvy owners would have realized, like scoutPRO, that he was stepping into a #3 receiver role left by Laurent Robinson’s departure. Robinson had 11 TD catches last year, so it is not too surprising to think that Tony Romo, who also had a great week, would find him twice in the end zone. He will be one of the most coveted free agents heading into week 2.

Week 1 is a litmus test for many players and teams, but the schedule is a long drama filled with twists and turns. Determining which players score touchdowns each week is the biggest challenge for owners, but scoutPRO does not try to predict outlying scoring. The strength of the tool is helping players understand the possible scoring each week based on the current match up and team structure. scoutPRO helps owners make sense of the matchups to optimize their roster. Keep up with the latest and most accurate predictions over at www.scoutpro.com.

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Why the Preseason Matters

August 21, 2012 By Leave a Comment

Every fantasy owner heads into an NFL season with well thought out expectations and predictions, but it really is all speculation until the players take the field and show what they are made of. Now that the NFL preseason is under way, we have had the chance to take a realistic look at what to expect from guys this year. Here are a few of the most interesting developments so far:

Jamaal Charles appeared to have most of his explosiveness back, but with Peyton Hillis around, the Chiefs have some healthy competition in their backfield. This is good news for a squad whose offensive line is looking very solid so far, helping the backs get in rhythm as they look to improve on a 2011 season in which they ranked 27th overall in offense.

Ryan Tannehill made a big first impression in an attempt to quiet the many doubters who thought he was taken far too high in the draft. The Miami offense looks a lot like the one he ran fairly successfully at Texas A&M, and he looked comfortable behind center.

While Doug Martin has been emerging out of camp as the starting RB in Tampa Bay (and he looks solid in game action), LeGarrette Blount has also put his A game on the field, showing that he has something to contribute and deserves to get carries.

Julio Jones flexed his muscles as he tries to assert himself as a top-tier WR. Even in a Falcons’ preseason loss to the Ravens, he got plenty of looks and made some highlight reel catches. His sophomore season could be a big breakout.

With all eyes scrutinizing his throws, Peyton Manning displayed that he may still need more time in his recovery from multiple neck surgeries in the past year. He has a few more weeks to get fully tuned up, and if he can come even close to being the Peyton of old, the Broncos offense should be just fine.

The dynamic combination of Matt Stafford and Calvin Johnson looks like it will deliver big fantasy numbers again this year, but Kevin Smith has been the story in Detroit so far this preseason, showing flashes of brilliance while Jahvid Best and Mikel LeShoure remain questions.

The 49ers showed the run first against Minnesota. Then they showed it some more. Despite having plenty of weapons in the air, Frank Gore, Brandon Jacobs, and Kendall Hunter are looking like a formidable ground game.

Check out scoutPRO Fantasy Football Expert Nelson Sousa’s full thoughts on the preseason so far for each team on www.scoutPRO.com.

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Training Camp Storylines

July 31, 2012 By Leave a Comment

As Training Camps get into full swing, excitement across the NFL is heating up in anticipation of the season’s start as we get our first look at how teams will stack up in 2012:

- The most prominent battles occurring at camps are for starting QB jobs, with the most open contests in Jacksonville, Miami, and Arizona. These aren’t just your typical ‘young gun vs. grizzled vet’ decisions – the Jaguars have said Chad Henne is going to be stuck as the backup, so Blaine Gabbert’s battle is really just against the hype put behind him by the club. For the Dolphins, expect the mediocre David Garrard to be the slight frontrunner over the also mediocre Matt Moore. The Cardinals have a tough decision to make on whether Kevin Kolb will fulfill the promise of his bigtime contract or will watch John Skelton from the sideline (the money will likely land KK in the huddle). Fans can also bet on plenty of media coverage and controversy about whether Mark Sanchez or Tim Tebow leads the New York Jets out onto the field in week 1.

- There is plenty of excitement in Indianapolis and Washington, with the number 1 and 2 picks in this year’s draft, Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III pretty much locks to lead their squads through the 2012 campaign. Nobody expects too much out of Luck with the lackluster supporting cast that played to a 2-14 record in 2011 to earn the first overall pick, but RG3 is shaping up to be a solid starter that will contribute serious value to his fantasy owners.

- Finally, Peyton-watch is in full effect in Denver. To the delight of Broncos fans, the future hall of fame QB appears to be fully recovered from the multiple neck surgeries that kept him out last year and effectively ended his tenure in Indy. The franchise has made several moves to give him additional weapons on the offensive side of the ball, so fans can expect good things if Manning stays healthy.

Check in next week for more as training camp unfolds across the league.

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Comeback Kids

June 5, 2012 By Leave a Comment

Returning from injury is no easy task. The beginning of the 2012 season will be marked by storylines following the returns of some big names who suffered physical setbacks last year and through the offseason. Some of these players may be fantasy kryptonite if they aren’t ready to play; others could be real gems whose stock is undervalued.

Here’s a look at a few of the most prominent cases:

Peyton Manning – Possibly the biggest storyline heading into this year’s NFL season is Manning’s return to the field with a team that is, for the first time, not the Indianapolis Colts. Following multiple surgeries on the persistent neck injury that kept him out the entire 2011 schedule as his team sunk to the bottom of the standings, Broncos fans are hoping the QB will enjoy a return to MVP-caliber form, but for the time being, there are still serious questions as to his status. Fantasy owners should be skeptical of what value he will be able to contribute.

Adrian Peterson – Coming off of ACL surgery, many still see AP as a freak of nature able to come back and deliver big yardage and touchdown totals this year. The more likely scenario is that his game sees somewhat of a decline due to the fact that RBs historically take at least 2 years to recover from this specific injury. He will be ready to play, but it will be safer to bet the under on his numbers.

Rob Gronkowski  - Gronk didn’t miss any games last season, but opted for surgery after suffering a major ankle injury in the AFC Championship Game that put a lid on his game in New England’s Super Bowl loss to the Giants. Thanks to his youth and his important role in his team’s offensive style, there is no reason to believe he won’t be the same dominant force as the man who caught an NFL record 17 touchdown receptions at TE in 2011.

Hakeem Nicks – A broken foot that will keep the WR out of training camp will likely not be enough to diminish this budding star’s game in 2012. As of right now, the Giants are saying he could be back in time for the preseason, which should still give him plenty of time to rev up his game for the regular season. Nicks will be a valuable asset to fantasy squads as a go-to-receiver on a Super Bowl Champion team with swagger.

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Don’t Forget About D

May 22, 2012 By Leave a Comment

Often overshadowed by the flashy play of RBs, WRs, and QBs racking up points every week is the Team Defense category that most fantasy formats include. In these types of leagues, having one of the better defenses is a definitive advantage; especially on occasions when a team produces a defensive gem, contributing significant points, it could be enough to turn a bad week into a victory.

A good defense gives an owner a sort of peace of mind. Some teams have gleaming defensive records over the past few seasons; ask fantasy owners who have rolled out the likes of the Green Bay Packers or the Baltimore Ravens against their opponents how important a reliable defense can be. Following this year’s draft and the developments of free agency so far, there may be some unlikely corps heading the pack in the 2012 season. Here are a few value plays for underrated defenses:

- The Denver Broncos were hugely inconsistent on the defensive side of the ball in 2011. They will rely on the adage that “the best defense is a good offense,” having signed Peyton Manning. Notwithstanding their other offseason moves, the Broncos D will get a boost in confidence from being backed by the future hall of fame QB that could translate to success.

- The Philadelphia Eagles quietly finished 2011 with the sixth highest fantasy-scoring defense despite their problems with winning games. The addition of DeMeco Ryans strengthens their linebacker corps, and a renewed energy surrounding a team with huge potential should help intimidate opposing offenses.

- The San Francisco 49ers ended the franchise’s best season in a few decades seventh overall in fantasy scoring defense. They are a smart play to repeat that success in 2012, simply because they are accomplishing a front office miracle in returning all 11 starters from last year’s unit. Adding Aldon Smith, who registered 14 sacks as a rookie, doesn’t hurt either.

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2012 NFL Draft First Round – Impact Players

April 27, 2012 By Leave a Comment

Last night’s NFL Draft featured little of the usual drama, with the top 2 picks effectively locked down for almost a month leading up to draft day. Sure enough, standout QBs Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III made the headlines as they took their rightful places on Thursday night, but while there may not have been any bombshells, there were some unexpected surprises, including some interesting selections that fantasy owners should note.

Here is a look into the first round picks that should make the most impact this fantasy season:

- Thanks to last year’s trade with the Atlanta Falcons, the Cleveland Browns drafted the blue chip RB in this year’s class in Trent Richardson (Alabama).  With the number of touches he should receive, Richardson has the potential be a playmaker and point machine.

- Doug Martin (Boise St.) is a complete RB, and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers know it’s not a stretch that he could unseat LaGarrette Blount as a number 1 back. Martin has a great set of hands, and as a double threat, could cause havoc for opposing defenses.

- WR Michael Floyd (Notre Dame) will give the Arizona Cardinals’ QBs a viable second strong option downfield. Look for him to be targeted early and often to draw some attention off of Fitzgerald. The Cards’ passing game should benefit greatly from this pick.

- WR Kendall Wright, RG3’s teammate at Baylor, was an excellent value for the Tennessee Titans at no. 20 overall. Not only is he a threat in the slot, he could also be a solid return man. Wright has huge potential.

- The biggest boost to team defense came in the form of the New England Patriots trading up twice in the first round to bolster the front seven, selecting Chandler Jones (Syracuse) and Dont’a Hightower (Alabama). This should indicate the Pats’ commitment to improving their D, which was dismal in 2011.

Following the top 2 picks, who will be obvious fantasy contributors, the QB class in the first round was a general letdown. Cleveland Browns pick Brandon Weeden (Oklahoma State) and the Miami Dolphins’ choice Ryan Tannehill (Texas A&M) don’t even seem like true starters, let alone viable fantasy producers.

Now that the first round has come and gone, fantasy owners have to step back and evaluate which rookie players will merit a look come fantasy draft time. Stay tuned to the blog for more insights from scoutPRO on this year’s draft class!

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