Week 9 – Look into the Crystal Ball

Every week in the NFL has storylines that take twists and turns. Who predicted that Doug Martin would have a breakout game against a stout Minnesota D? Pittsburgh’s defense is notoriously solid, but hopefully you weren’t relying on RG3 to win your week as he delivered his worst performance of the season. The most successful fantasy owners know that in reality, there is some degree of order behind all the chaos and unpredictability. Looking at the information that matters most can reveal insights into who will get the job done and who will fizzle out each week.

Division matchups

We have seen it time and time again; players step up to perform in big games. In the NFL, games between division rivals carry more weight, and there is a special air around these matchups. Even a fantasy slouch like Mark Sanchez is almost guaranteed to play a solid game when up against his archrival New England Patriots.

It Happened in Week 8: Alex Smith and Michael Crabtree had a big night on Monday vs. Arizona. The Cardinals, especially the defense, may be overrated, but the game was still for first place in the division. Smith and his most targeted receiver both stepped up their game for some of their best fantasy performances of the season. Both have shown they can be counted on in the clutch, so start them going forward in games with implications.

It Will Happen in Week 9: There aren’t a ton of division games on the slate in Week 9, but look for Philip Rivers, Ryan Mathews, and the rest of the Chargers’ offense to take care of business and have a drastically better week against their lowly division foe Kansas City.

Individual Player Trends

It’s risky to put too much stock into streaks, but recognizing a player filling a consistent role in an offense is a good way to ensure a solid fantasy performance.

It Happened in Week 8: After 4 straight weeks with a reception of 50+ yards, Chris Givens made it 5 in a row and scored a touchdown on the play. Owners who picked up the St. Louis wide out to fill a hole left by injuries or byes were rewarded for recognizing this obvious trend. Sam Bradford is bound to continue looking for Givens downfield, often to the endzone, plays that carry big upside, even if he only reels in one per game.

It Will Happen in Week 9: Josh Freeman has been consistently outperforming fantasy expectations, and as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers continue to try and prove that they, like their quarterback, are underrated, he may deserve a starting roster spot in many situations.  After throwing 16 TDs against 22 INTs last year, he has turned it around and been highly consistent, already delivering 14 TDs vs. just 5 picks. A matchup vs. a mediocre Oakland defense would suggest the trend continues.

Josh Freeman has had a few great fantasy weeks

Game Conditions

It Happened in Week 8: Both Brandon Weeden and Philip Rivers struggled mightily to throw the football in heavy rains in Cleveland. A 7-6 final score isn’t what any fantasy owner is looking for.

It Will Happen in Week 9: The Packers host the Cardinals at Lambeau Field on Sunday, and as the season turns and it starts to get colder up North, the Pack will flourish more and more, as they do every year on the Frozen Tundra. Receivers like Jordy Nelson and the emerging Randall Cobb used to handling the ball in the cold will have decided advantages vs. opposing defenses.

One more tip from the pros: Follow the latest projections on www.scoutpro.com to see what the insiders already know about this week’s games!

Week 5 – Proof is in the Pudding

Last year, in Week 5, Victor Cruz put up a 161 yard game, establishing himself as a must-own player after being undrafted in just about every league. So far in 2012, no player has had such a grand coming-out party as Cruz had in 2011, but after Cruz caught 3 more TD passes Sunday afternoon, we were reminded that there are new stars born in this league every week. On the flipside, for some, glory quickly fades as hyped up players fail to meet expectations, causing their eager owners headaches.

It is too early to call them ‘sleepers’ or ‘busts’ yet, but here are some surprising players who have been undervalued and a few some notable names who have been way overvalued in 2012:

Alfred Morris is enjoying a great start to his career

The Good:

Stevan Ridley – Led by perennial stud QB Tom Brady, the Patriots’ offense is on pace to break a team record for first downs and yardage they set last year.  It doesn’t seem like news, but it is most interesting that the team is getting the job done rushing the ball. Yes, despite Brady’s penchant for throwing the ball on a vast majority of downs, the improved Pats run game is being led by Ridley, who has already eclipsed his totals in all categories from last year.  He had an average draft position outside the top 60, but Ridley is ready for the spotlight.

Eli Manning – Somehow, after winning his second Super Bowl, Eli still lives in the shadow of big brother Peyton. This year, his Giants offense looks strong – he has already thrown for more than 1500 yards, second behind only Drew Brees, and the G-Men favor the pass in the Red Zone, averaging a cool 2 TD passes per game. Until anything changes, Eli is making his case as a pretty strong #1 going forward.

Percy Harvin – Things are good in Minnesota for Harvin. The Vikings’ WR had a big Week 5, and it shouldn’t have been a big surprise. His team is 4-1 and he is enjoying a resurgent season catching passes, running the ball, and racking up return yards, which boosts his value significantly in some scoring formats. He is getting plenty of attention when the Vikings get near the goal line, which owners should love.

Reggie Wayne – There is a curious situation developing in Indianapolis. The Colts are not deep in receivers, and rookie Andrew Luck doesn’t really have a solid second WR option behind an old veteran who is past his heyday.  Every defense knows Wayne’s name, but he is still managing to shine on the field in a way he hasn’t for quite a while. At the height of Peyton Manning’s career in Indy, Wayne wouldn’t be considered under-the-radar at all, but his success this season is still surprising and downright impressive.

Alfred Morris – RG3 has been the darling of the fantasy world as a breakout rookie star in Washington, but his teammate Morris has been punishing defenses and racking up points on the ground. The 6th round draft pick out of unglamorous Florida-Atlantic University has produced numbers right on par with the highly touted star RB of this year’s draft class, Trent Richardson, a pleasant surprise for the owners who snatched him up. Again, he was not totally off the radar like Cruz, but Morris is the closest apparition to a true sleeper so far this year.

The Bad:

Cam Newton – Superman’s Carolina Panthers have struggled to win games in 2012, and the rising star QB is largely responsible. His offensive production isn’t bad per se, but it’s a departure from what we saw in his rookie season last year. He has thrown just 4 TD passes, and only gained 209 yards on the ground – relatively low numbers for a guy often pegged to be a human highlight reel. Right now, he is only worth the effort in 2 QB formats and deeper leagues.

Chris Johnson – CJ2K’s owners sound like a broken record with his frustrating performances to date. The former rushing champ isn’t doing anything right. Plus, Tennessee’s run blocking gives him no help, and the team falling behind early in games has meant a focus on the air game trying to play catch up, limiting his touches. Johnson is far and away the biggest disappointment among prominent players who haven’t lost time to injury like Hakeem Nicks or Aaron Hernandez.

LeSean McCoy – Before the season, many experts pegged the Eagles’ dynamic starter as a top 5 RB, but he has struggled to find the endzone, managing just 1 rushing TD so far. The Eagles have been a fantasy nightmare this year, with fumble problems, limited scoring, and plenty of inconsistency. McCoy has a couple of 100 yard games, but until the team dials it up and he starts scoring consistently, consider him a bust given the lofty expectations.

Antonio Gates – With the exception of Malcom Floyd, Chargers QB Philip Rivers hasn’t really clicked with any of his receivers this year, leading to his team ranking 19th overall in pass offense through Week 5. The big TE Gates has only totaled 143 yards in his first 4 games, and has failed to score any touchdowns. With limited depth in the tight end position across the league, Gates’ owners have to be disappointed with one of the elite options failing to deliver.

Andre Johnson – The Houston Texans have jumped out to a 5-0 start, but they have been beating sub-500 teams and their star WR isn’t even leading the team in targets. Things don’t seem quite aligned for Johnson, and he has been a non-factor in some games so far this season. Increased attention from opposing CBs and some dropped passes have brought his value down. He is still a touchdown threat, but owners are still waiting for the player they saw last year return.

Why the Preseason Matters

Every fantasy owner heads into an NFL season with well thought out expectations and predictions, but it really is all speculation until the players take the field and show what they are made of. Now that the NFL preseason is under way, we have had the chance to take a realistic look at what to expect from guys this year. Here are a few of the most interesting developments so far:

Jamaal Charles appeared to have most of his explosiveness back, but with Peyton Hillis around, the Chiefs have some healthy competition in their backfield. This is good news for a squad whose offensive line is looking very solid so far, helping the backs get in rhythm as they look to improve on a 2011 season in which they ranked 27th overall in offense.

Ryan Tannehill made a big first impression in an attempt to quiet the many doubters who thought he was taken far too high in the draft. The Miami offense looks a lot like the one he ran fairly successfully at Texas A&M, and he looked comfortable behind center.

While Doug Martin has been emerging out of camp as the starting RB in Tampa Bay (and he looks solid in game action), LeGarrette Blount has also put his A game on the field, showing that he has something to contribute and deserves to get carries.

Julio Jones flexed his muscles as he tries to assert himself as a top-tier WR. Even in a Falcons’ preseason loss to the Ravens, he got plenty of looks and made some highlight reel catches. His sophomore season could be a big breakout.

With all eyes scrutinizing his throws, Peyton Manning displayed that he may still need more time in his recovery from multiple neck surgeries in the past year. He has a few more weeks to get fully tuned up, and if he can come even close to being the Peyton of old, the Broncos offense should be just fine.

The dynamic combination of Matt Stafford and Calvin Johnson looks like it will deliver big fantasy numbers again this year, but Kevin Smith has been the story in Detroit so far this preseason, showing flashes of brilliance while Jahvid Best and Mikel LeShoure remain questions.

The 49ers showed the run first against Minnesota. Then they showed it some more. Despite having plenty of weapons in the air, Frank Gore, Brandon Jacobs, and Kendall Hunter are looking like a formidable ground game.

Check out scoutPRO Fantasy Football Expert Nelson Sousa’s full thoughts on the preseason so far for each team on www.scoutPRO.com.

What Do the Saints’ Suspensions Mean for the NFL’s 2012 Season?

With Jonathan Vilma suspended for the entire 2012 season, the backlash from the Saints’ bounty program continues. In recent years, Drew Brees and other members of the Saints’ potent offense emerged as dependable fantasy plays, but it may be time to begin wondering what impact the absence of Coach Sean Payton and now one of the defensive and emotional leaders in Vilma will mean for the overall success of this team. The wheels seem to be coming off in New Orleans – off-field distractions and a difficult atmosphere in the locker room can wreak havoc on Sunday successes.

The scandal may have a wider impact on the entire NFL too. After the league promised to be more aggressive in player suspensions for illegal hits in 2011, many players have had to adapt their game to avoid supplemental discipline that can have severe costs for them and their teams. Suspensions due to on or off-field behavior can have a significant impact on a player’s approach to the game; intimidating defenses become slightly less so, and skilled offensive players have a little more breathing room. The effects of the Saints’ suspensions are as of yet unknown, but could influence matchup decisions come gametime.

The league is trying to be firm with its stance on inappropriate behavior that poisons the game of football, and this most recent suspension is the most striking to date. What do you think? Is Vilma’s suspension merited? What will be the consequences for the Saints and their opponents?

 

RG3 Has More than Luck

At this juncture, it is widely speculated that after the Indianapolis Colts select Andrew Luck to succeed Peyton Manning and revive the dreams of Circle City football fans, Robert Griffin III will play second fiddle, “falling” to the Washington Redskins. However, while Luck is the safe bet, billed as “NFL-ready,” Griffin is a much more intriguing player, and actually may have a far greater value for fantasy owners.

Although it would be unfair to expect him to produce like Cam Newton did a year ago, RG3 has the same elite skillset as his Heisman Trophy predecessor and will be surrounded by the type of offense that will let him show his talents off. Much like Newton in 2011, the formula could make Griffin a top 10 fantasy producer, even in his rookie season. For that reason scoutPRO has tabbed the dynamic QB as the better choice for fantasy owners.

Stay tuned following the NFL Draft for more in depth analysis of scoutPRO’s rankings and why RG3 is way ahead of the pack, including the likely #1 pick.