Fantasy Implications from Free Agency

While there are some free agents still on the market, most of the big names have already signed and are gearing up for the 2013 season.  For those of you looking to get a head start on your fantasy research, scoutPRO expert Nelson Sousa is here to talk about the fantasy implications of all the free agent moves.  Let’s see what he has to say:

Wes Welker

With Welker heading west to Denver, he will continue to compete with some talented players for receptions, just like in New England.  The only difference is he must now compete with WRs rather than TEs (Demaryius Thomas/Eric Decker vs. Rob Gronkowski/ Aaron Hernandez).  Although Decker runs shorter routes in a similar fashion to Welker, I think they can coexist along with Thomas.  On the flip side, I see Thomas’s value going up.  He will continue to be a threat on deep routes, which will lead to explosive plays for the 4th year pro.  As for Welker, he will continue to be a valuable fantasy WR and his role in Denver will be basically the same.  All in all, more weapons for Peyton Manning means nothing but good things for him.  His first year in Denver was a huge success, and adding a weapon like Welker will only add to his value.

Adding Welker will only help the Broncos already talented group of WRs.

Steven Jackson

Honestly, I haven’t been a fan of his for a few years now.  But that was in part to him being on a terrible St. Louis Rams team.  With him now in Atlanta, my views have changed.  The Falcons have one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL, with a bunch of guys to account for on each and every play.  With that being said, I think Jackson is going to have a really good year.  He won’t face many guys in the box due to Julio Jones and Roddy White garnering so much attention on the outside.  Michael Turner ran out of gas two years ago and still managed to put up decent numbers in this offense (double digit TDs both years).  Jackson still has some gas left in the tank, and he could have a monster year for the defending NFC South champions.  I could see a 1,300 yard, 15 TD season, while at a minimum he should be able to top 1,000 yards with 10 TDs.

Percy Harvin

While he was acquired via trade rather than free agency, nonetheless he is a big time fantasy player and will continue to do the same thing in Seattle.  The Seahawks are a run-heavy team, but they are much different from Minnesota.  Harvin was having a really good year in 2012 before he got injured and I expect the same from him in 2013.  If he can stay healthy, he will no doubt be a top fantasy WR.

Jared Cook

The Rams shelled out some big time cash ($16 million guaranteed) for the former Tennessee Titan, so I expect them to actually use Cook in their offense unlike the Titans.  If they don’t, Rams GM Les Snead will be sharpening his resume in a few years.  Since the Rams already have Lance Kendricks at TE, I believe Rams HC Jeff Fisher is looking to go New England style with two TE sets.  Kendricks and Cook are different types of players just like Gronk and Hernandez.  Cook is a big, fast and physical target, while Kendricks is pretty quick for a TE.  I really like him this year and will be interested to see how this plays out.

Cook is one of the most physically gifted players in the NFL.

Mike Wallace

Wallace reaped the benefits of free agency by signing a lucrative deal with the Dolphins worth over $60 million.  I am a little unsure about this and I think the jury is definitely still out on him.  Dolphins QB Ryan Tannehill is a good player, but he is not Ben Roethlisberger.  He will now being lining up opposite Brian Hartline, who is a good WR, but nothing special.  I think it could be a struggle for Wallace in his first year as a Dolphin.  Defenses will look to take away the deep ball from him by playing man coverage with a safety deep.  That is where he does a ton of damage, which could no doubt affect his fantasy value.

Danny Amendola

With Wes Welker gone, Amendola is now the man at WR in New England.  Since Donald Jones is currently slated to be the #2 WR, more moves are in store for the Patriots.  There is no way they are going to go into the season with him at that position.  Something is going to happen, whether it is a trade or free agent acquisition (Emmanuel Sanders?).  Along the same lines, I think they are going to run more 3 TE sets this year with Jake Ballard as the 3rd TE, and put a greater emphasis on the power running game.  Back to Amendola, he is a feisty, motivated player who has had some bad breaks with injuries over the past few seasons.  He has had no consistency in his career up until last year, but that was catching passes from Sam Bradford and dealing with the Rams turnstile offensive line.  Now insert Tom Brady and the Patriots dynamic offense into that last sentence and the future could be bright.  I will wait to see what else the Patriots do this offseason before I make a final judgment on him.

Reggie Bush

This was one I called from the beginning, and signing with the Lions was something that just made sense for him.  They are looking for a guy to replace Jahvid Best, who has been severely affected by concussions his entire career.  I like Bush this year and am going to be targeting him in my drafts.  He has the potential for 75 catches in this offense as he has the ability to line up all over the field (backfield, slot, out wide).  With defenses focusing on trying to contain Calvin Johnson, Bush should be able to get some favorable matchups that he can exploit.  He is going to get a full workload (Leshoure will get some short yardage carries and the occasional drive).  Factoring in all of these things, I see the potential for a big year from Bush.

Bush could be in for a big year in 2013.

Greg Jennings

By signing with Minnesota, it looks as though Jennings chose money over winning and competing for Super Bowls.  Green Bay made him an offer, and there were reports that New England did as well.  If this is true, I’m not sure how you can justify choosing Christian Ponder over Aaron Rodgers or Tom Brady.  The good news about Minnesota is they do not have many weapons and Jennings will no doubt get a ton of targets.  Teams will continue to focus on containing Adrian Peterson, giving Jennings the opportunity to surprise some of the people who are already writing him off.  He will still go fairly high in drafts, but I believe he will fly a bit under-the-radar.  I could see him going in the 6th round, and I would have no problem drafting him there.

Dustin Keller

Keller had some ups and downs in his time with the New York Jets.  He had his moments with some big games, but could never find any consistency.  With the combination of bad QB play, a bad OC in Tony Sparano and just an overall bad team, it wasn’t exactly a recipe for success.  Couple that with some injuries problems in 2012 and Keller was probably thrilled to be a free agent.  Ryan Tannehill is heading into his second year in the league and will improve, but there is no better safety valve for a young QB than a TE.  Additionally, Mike Wallace is going to draw a ton of attention from opposing defenses when he is on the field.  This situation could lead to Keller catching a lot of passes and being Tannehill’s best friend out on the field.

Rashard Mendenhall

I have been high on Ryan Williams for a while now, so it was a shame to see the Cardinals sign Mendenhall.  New Cardinals HC Bruce Arians trusts him from his time working with him in Pittsburgh.  Mendenhall could get a shot to carry the load at RB.  Both guys have had injury problems, so it will be interesting to see what plays out with the situation.

Shonn Greene

Many were surprised when he signed with the Titans, but personally I was not.  They need to keep Chris Johnson fresh and can’t wear him down.  His 2009 season when he went for over 2,000 yards may have messed with his head.  Nowadays, he is always dancing and looking to hit the homerun, rather than just trying to gain what is there.  All the fault cannot be put on his shoulders as the ball is often forced to him.  With Greene now in town, maybe he can apply a little pressure to Johnson and force him to step up his game.

Will Chris Johnson step his game up with Greene in town?

Danny Woodhead and Ronnie Brown

With Brown re-signing and Woodhead coming in from New England, this could ultimately put a damper on Ryan Mathews’ value.  I have been a fan of his, however he just hasn’t been able to put it all together (did have a nice run down the stretch in 2011).  With a new coaching staff in town, that should mean nothing but good things for the offensive line, which was nothing short of pathetic in 2012.  It remains to be seen how this will impact Mathews.  While he may drop in draft position, that could present a buying opportunity for owners willing to give him another shot.

How will Mathews' stock be affected by Woodhead and Brown?

Brandon Myers

He will replace Martellus Bennett in New York.  Personally, I don’t think he is all that good.  He will catch some passes, but don’t expect anything special.  The Giants offense is the Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz show and will continue to be in 2013.  Also, they don’t feature the TE as much as other teams around the league.  If you look back to last year, Bennett started the season on fire, catching a TD in each of the first three games.  After week three, he was basically nowhere to be found the rest of the season.

James Casey

Casey signed a three-year deal with the Eagles worth $14 million.  He will be an afterthought to most, which will allow you to pick him up much later in drafts.  While playing for the Texans, he lined up all over the field (fullback, H-back, tight end).  His versatility is something that new Eagles HC Chip Kelly loves and was one of the main reasons they targeted him.  Look for him to pair with Brent Celek in two TE sets, with Casey being the Aaron Hernandez of the offense.  Celek will be the in-line guy and focus on blocking.  I think Casey could explode this year and be a great pickup as a 2nd TE.

Delanie Walker

The Titans got one of the best blocking TEs in the NFL when they signed Walker.  While they are going to focus on running the ball, don’t sleep on him.  He had some drop issues last season, but he could get some opportunities with Jared Cook no longer around.

Martellus Bennett 

I think this is a good signing by Chicago.  They desperately need some more weapons for Jay Cutler, and Bennett will provide a big target for him.  He can also block, which is always helpful in the run game.  Overall, he is a solid TE and a nice pickup by the Bears.

Bennett will be a nice addition for Jay Cutler and the Bears.

Thanks for stopping by!  If you like mock drafts, make sure to keep coming back over the next few weeks as Nelson will be updating his right up until the 2013 NFL Draft.  Don’t forget to follow us (@CSAscoutPRO) and Nelson (@The_Franchise12) on Twitter!

 

 

Free Agency Preview – WR’s

With the Combine getting started this weekend, it will only be a few weeks before free agency begins.  scoutPRO expert Nelson Sousa is back to talk about the talented group of free agents WR’s.  Any team in need of some help has plenty of options to consider, including some big names.

Greg Jennings

In my opinion, I think he is the best of the bunch and the most valuable.  He can play on the outside, in the slot, has a great work ethic and no off the field problems like some other free agent WR’s (Dwayne Bowe and Mike Wallace).  Miami seems like a logical fit, as they are desperate for a WR1.  Also, they are way under the salary cap and have plenty of money to spend.  Dolphins HC Joe Philbin was Green Bay’s OC from 2007-2011, and during that period Jennings averaged over 1,100 yards per season while hauling in 46 TD’s.  Philbin is clearly familiar with him and I’m sure Ryan Tannehill wouldn’t mind throwing to the two time Pro Bowler.

Possible destinations:  Dolphins

Will Jennings take his talents to South Beach?

Mike Wallace

I think he is right behind Jennings in this class and could see the Chiefs making a run at him if they don’t end up keeping Dwayne Bowe.  New Chiefs HC Andy Reid likes smaller, faster WR’s (Desean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin), and that’s exactly what Wallace brings to the table.  He can really stretch a defense deep with his 4.3 speed, evidenced by his 21 yards per reception in 2010.  If they want similar money, I think Kansas City would choose Wallace over Bowe.  The Dolphins are another team that could target Wallace.  They are weak at WR and could definitely benefit from his big play ability.

Possible destinations:  Chiefs, Dolphins

Wes Welker

First off, I think the Patriots are going to trade for Percy Harvin.  Bill Belichick likes him and he can step into Welker’s role while injecting some youth and speed into the offense.  Furthermore, Harvin can stretch a defense deep and also line up in the backfield.  With that being said, they are going to let Welker walk.  He is going to get quite a bit of money and should attract attention from multiple teams.  It all depends on cap room, but one team that makes sense is Dallas.  Miles Austin is always hurt and Welker would pair well with Dez Bryant.  Cowboys’ owner Jerry Jones could view him as the piece to get them over the hump into the playoffs while providing a safety valve for Tony Romo.  Denver would also be a good fit.  He could be that slot guy, but with two young WR’s in Eric Decker and Demaryius Thomas who are going to need new contracts soon, it might not work financially.  The Bengals are in need of playmakers to go with A.J. Green, and he would be a great complement to him.  This is a playoff caliber team, but they still need a guy like Welker to solidify the offense and help Andy Dalton out.  A few more teams that make sense are the Falcons and Steelers.  If Tony Gonzalez does end up retiring and they don’t sign a free agent TE, he could step in and take his catches in the middle.  That’s a big part of their offense, and Welker would pair well with outside threats Julio Jones and Roddy White.  Lastly, if Mike Wallace ends up leaving Pittsburgh, they are going to need a new WR.

Possible destinations:  Cowboys, Bengals, Falcons, Steelers, Broncos

Welker has had 100+ catches in five of the last six seasons.

Dwayne Bowe

He is no doubt a talented player, but his off the field issues will raise concern with anyone looking to sign him.  From conditioning and work ethic questions to a suspension for using performance-enhancing drugs, he has quite a bit of baggage attached to his name.   A team with a veteran coach who can control him would be an ideal fit for Bowe.  If Mike Wallace leaves Pittsburgh, the Steelers could work.  Mike Tomlin is a no-nonsense kind of guy and would provide some tough love that Bowe needs.  Although he had some run-ins with Todd Haley while he was in Kansas City (now the Steelers OC), Bowe had his most productive seasons under Haley.  He had back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons in 2010 and 2011, notching a career best 15 TD’s in 2010.  Another team that could make sense is Minnesota.  If they end up trading Harvin like I have predicted, they will be left with basically nothing at the WR position.  Adrian Peterson can’t do everything, so they would have to make some moves and get Christian Ponder some weapons to work with.

Possible destinations:  Steelers, Vikings

Thanks for stopping by!  Come back next week for Nelson’s review of the NFL Combine.  Don’t forget to follow us on Twitter at @CSAscoutPRO!  

 

Don’t Forget About D

Often overshadowed by the flashy play of RBs, WRs, and QBs racking up points every week is the Team Defense category that most fantasy formats include. In these types of leagues, having one of the better defenses is a definitive advantage; especially on occasions when a team produces a defensive gem, contributing significant points, it could be enough to turn a bad week into a victory.

A good defense gives an owner a sort of peace of mind. Some teams have gleaming defensive records over the past few seasons; ask fantasy owners who have rolled out the likes of the Green Bay Packers or the Baltimore Ravens against their opponents how important a reliable defense can be. Following this year’s draft and the developments of free agency so far, there may be some unlikely corps heading the pack in the 2012 season. Here are a few value plays for underrated defenses:

- The Denver Broncos were hugely inconsistent on the defensive side of the ball in 2011. They will rely on the adage that “the best defense is a good offense,” having signed Peyton Manning. Notwithstanding their other offseason moves, the Broncos D will get a boost in confidence from being backed by the future hall of fame QB that could translate to success.

- The Philadelphia Eagles quietly finished 2011 with the sixth highest fantasy-scoring defense despite their problems with winning games. The addition of DeMeco Ryans strengthens their linebacker corps, and a renewed energy surrounding a team with huge potential should help intimidate opposing offenses.

- The San Francisco 49ers ended the franchise’s best season in a few decades seventh overall in fantasy scoring defense. They are a smart play to repeat that success in 2012, simply because they are accomplishing a front office miracle in returning all 11 starters from last year’s unit. Adding Aldon Smith, who registered 14 sacks as a rookie, doesn’t hurt either.