Week 14 – Playoff Implications

There are just 3 more weeks remaining in the NFL schedule, and fantasy owners know what that means. Most leagues kick off the playoffs this week. Those of you who failed to make the cut, you should have subscribed to scoutPRO! There is ALWAYS next year!

For those who made it in, congratulations! The pressure is on now, as every matchup is win or go home. The big prize is just a few short weeks away, and here are some storylines that will help make sure you take home the hardware and the bragging rights you deserve.

Watch Your Matchups

Weeks  14-17 are without a doubt the most important to consider what quality of opponent your roster players are facing. A particularly tough matchup could cost you valuable points in a critical situation, while on the other hand, looking to start players with high upside vs. favorable matchups can be the most direct way to a W. Joe Flacco’s matchup vs. a porous Washington defense in Week 14 is a juicy example. Flacco hasn’t been quite as good on the road as at home in 2012, but the Skins have had trouble stopping the air game all season.

You might want consider dropping your stronger team DEF for one with a weak schedule. Pittsburgh’s stout D faces tough tests in Weeks 15 and 16 with desperate and talented offenses from Dallas and Cincinnati, and could be a risky play. Denver faces Oakland, Cleveland, and Kansas City in 3 of its final 4, a safer schedule with much higher upside.

Star Players Resting Up

As some of the better teams lock up playoff spots and byes, a handful of star performers will plant themselves on the bench to avoid unnecessary injuries and rest up for the playoff push. This year is especially interesting , with four teams already clinching earlier than usual.

Keep an eye locked on this storyline, but Arian Foster may be benched soon, as the Texans are looking a sure bet for a first round bye. Backup Ben Tate is already starting to fly off the shelves in most leagues. Also, veteran receiver Roddy White and TE Tony Gonzalez could be watching from the sidelines with the Falcons sitting pretty in the NFC. There might be much more value from players on teams fighting for a spot, like the Seahawks’ Golden Tate or the Colts’ Donnie Avery.

Arian Foster may spend some time on the bench in the last few weeks of the season

Some Bigger Names Not Worth the Trouble

Injuries have plagued Jordy Nelson, and with the return of Greg Jennings, the standout WR may not be worth the trouble for his frustrated owners. Denarius Moore has been the focus of opposing defenses after a great first half – now he is struggling to produce, and doesn’t merit a start with the playoffs on the line. Jay Cutler is a legitimate #1 fantasy QB, with Brandon Marshall at his service, but coming off some iffy weeks and facing off with stronger defenses in his division, run with a quality backup if you have one.

 

Jordy Nelson and his nagging injury is one example of a usual must-start player being relegated to bench status for the playoffs

scoutPRO wishes all the teams vying for their league titles good luck this week! Check back in next week for insights on Week 15, and check out www.scoutpro.com for the latest projections and insights from our Fantasy Expert Nelson Sousa.

Week 9 – Look into the Crystal Ball

Every week in the NFL has storylines that take twists and turns. Who predicted that Doug Martin would have a breakout game against a stout Minnesota D? Pittsburgh’s defense is notoriously solid, but hopefully you weren’t relying on RG3 to win your week as he delivered his worst performance of the season. The most successful fantasy owners know that in reality, there is some degree of order behind all the chaos and unpredictability. Looking at the information that matters most can reveal insights into who will get the job done and who will fizzle out each week.

Division matchups

We have seen it time and time again; players step up to perform in big games. In the NFL, games between division rivals carry more weight, and there is a special air around these matchups. Even a fantasy slouch like Mark Sanchez is almost guaranteed to play a solid game when up against his archrival New England Patriots.

It Happened in Week 8: Alex Smith and Michael Crabtree had a big night on Monday vs. Arizona. The Cardinals, especially the defense, may be overrated, but the game was still for first place in the division. Smith and his most targeted receiver both stepped up their game for some of their best fantasy performances of the season. Both have shown they can be counted on in the clutch, so start them going forward in games with implications.

It Will Happen in Week 9: There aren’t a ton of division games on the slate in Week 9, but look for Philip Rivers, Ryan Mathews, and the rest of the Chargers’ offense to take care of business and have a drastically better week against their lowly division foe Kansas City.

Individual Player Trends

It’s risky to put too much stock into streaks, but recognizing a player filling a consistent role in an offense is a good way to ensure a solid fantasy performance.

It Happened in Week 8: After 4 straight weeks with a reception of 50+ yards, Chris Givens made it 5 in a row and scored a touchdown on the play. Owners who picked up the St. Louis wide out to fill a hole left by injuries or byes were rewarded for recognizing this obvious trend. Sam Bradford is bound to continue looking for Givens downfield, often to the endzone, plays that carry big upside, even if he only reels in one per game.

It Will Happen in Week 9: Josh Freeman has been consistently outperforming fantasy expectations, and as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers continue to try and prove that they, like their quarterback, are underrated, he may deserve a starting roster spot in many situations.  After throwing 16 TDs against 22 INTs last year, he has turned it around and been highly consistent, already delivering 14 TDs vs. just 5 picks. A matchup vs. a mediocre Oakland defense would suggest the trend continues.

Josh Freeman has had a few great fantasy weeks

Game Conditions

It Happened in Week 8: Both Brandon Weeden and Philip Rivers struggled mightily to throw the football in heavy rains in Cleveland. A 7-6 final score isn’t what any fantasy owner is looking for.

It Will Happen in Week 9: The Packers host the Cardinals at Lambeau Field on Sunday, and as the season turns and it starts to get colder up North, the Pack will flourish more and more, as they do every year on the Frozen Tundra. Receivers like Jordy Nelson and the emerging Randall Cobb used to handling the ball in the cold will have decided advantages vs. opposing defenses.

One more tip from the pros: Follow the latest projections on www.scoutpro.com to see what the insiders already know about this week’s games!

End of the 1st Quarter: Adjust Your Gameplan

After Week 4 in the NFL, we have reached the quarter-way marker through the fantasy season. Where does your team stand? Are you 4-0 and bragging about early season dominance, or 0-4 and sobbing gently in bed at night?

Maybe you had the foresight before the season to draft impact rookies like RG3 or Trent Richardson who have so far rewarded owners who took a chance. Maybe you were lucky enough to get a top 3 pick and snag Arian Foster, or pick up Matt Ryan at a bargain. If this is you, congratulations, you are probably rocking and rolling.

Then again, maybe you are facing one of the following scenarios and have had a tough time trying to get wins:

Busts: Did you, like many other eager owners, burn a valuable first round draft pick on Chris Johnson? Frustrated that even Brandon Weeden has more fantasy value than Mark Sanchez so far?

Injuries: Are you in trouble with Hakeem Nicks’ persistent injury keeping the star WR on your bench as he tries to get healthy? What will you do now that Santonio Holmes might miss multiple games too?

There are plenty of excuses to make for a poor first quarter of the season, but it’s time to turn it around. Here are a few strategies to help right the ship, correct the course, and lead you to more points and less headaches:

Browse the free agent market:

Brian Hartline (WR – MIA) – Ryan Tannehill might not be an elite passer, but he has managed to connect with Hartline early and often this season. Nobody drafted this guy, snatch him up and give him a shot if he is still available.

Jackie Battle (RB– SD) – Ryan Mathews returned from his preseason injury to start weeks 3 and 4, but Battle has been an unsung hero for the Bolts, not only getting touches and grinding out yardage, but catching passes and scoring a few touchdowns in the process .

James Jones (WR – GB) – The nagging groin injury keeping Greg Jennings down means JJ will see a lot more targets alongside Jordy Nelson in the Packers’ passing offense. He may be hanging around waiting for a loving owner to take him home for the next few weeks.

Owen Daniels (TE – HOU) – Although the Texans are a run-first offense, Daniels is the go-to target for Matt Schaub, and he has gotten hot, scoring a pair of touchdowns in weeks 3 and 4. If you don’t already have a Jimmy Graham or Rob Gronkowski, you need Daniels’ help.

Trade your way to the top:

If you are sitting on a deep running game and are lacking a quality QB or a stud WR, search through your competitions’ rosters for someone who has the exact opposite problem. Fantasy football is highly competitive, but successful owners work together to fill needs when the outlook gets bleak. Don’t be scared to involve a third owner for a multi-team trade to help everyone get the player they need. You may be making your competition slightly stronger, but you must do what it takes to get your own roster right if you want to have the chance to win.

Cross your fingers and wait it out:

If you think you have all the right pieces and things just haven’t come together for you yet, or if you’ve already tried everything else to no avail, you can always just attempt to weather the storm. Your dud RB might have a big week and spark a resurgence in his game, or your desperate waiver wire pickup could break out as a new fantasy star. Stranger things have happened.

Don’t forget to check out www.scoutpro.com for the fantasy tools you need to gain the competitive edge, and stay tuned to our blog for more tips and insights on the world of fantasy football. 

Preseason Week 3 – Regular Season Approaching Fast

scoutPRO has been busy watching the NFL preseason action unfold, and keeping our eyes on some players to watch or avoid as fantasy owners prepare to draft their 2012 rosters. Here are some of the most interesting developments from Week 3:

While the Jaguars continue waiting on holdout fantasy stud RB Maurice Jones-Drew, Rashad Jennings has put his best foot forward in this preseason, earning him consideration for owners if he gets the job in MJD’s absence. Although this team hasn’t shown a lot of offensive power in the past few seasons, Blaine Gabbert is developing at a better than expected rate, and rookie Justin Blackmon has already emerged as an impact player worthy of your roster.

We all know Aaron Rodgers is an elite QB, and Cedric Benson has looked good in his touches the past few weeks, but WR Jordy Nelson has been the real breakout star of the Packers’ preseason so far. The former second-round pick appears capable of topping even the very solid Greg Jennings as the Cheese’s #1 receiver. Becoming Rodgers’ favorite target is certainly nothing to be ignored by fantasy owners.

Although many pundits are expecting Trent Richardson to be a primetime contributor for the Browns in his first season, many signs have pointed to the team taking it slow with the #3 overall draft pick. It is hard to envision Richardson carrying the full load with Montario Hardesty and Brandon Jackson available to pitch in, which damages the rookie’s upside. Be careful not to overvalue him.

While Ray Rice continues to be himself (a super-elite RB), the real news out of Baltimore’s preseason games for fantasy owners are Joe Flacco and Torrey Smith, who have both increased their stock with solid performances. QB Flacco has shown composure, and runs a talented offense that will make him a great #2. Smith has been impressive, and will make a good #2 or an excellent #3 at WR. Keep eyes on Anquan Boldin in later rounds of the draft; he still has plenty to offer owners.

Torrey Smith's stock keeps rising.

The Cardinals QB ‘battle’ (more like ‘who stinks less’) between Kevin Kolb and John Skelton has now gotten even more confusing, as neither are slated to start in the Cards’ preseason finale vs. the Broncos. Forget either as an option this year, although there shouldn’t be any doubts about standout Larry Fitzgerald, as he has proven he can catch anything the pathetic duo can heave his way.

As usual, scoutPRO fantasy expert Nelson Sousa’s full report on what he saw is available for members on www.scoutpro.com. Check it out today! 

Tight End Frenzy

Last season, the Patriots’ Rob Gronkowski led a class of tight ends that revitalized the position’s role in many teams’ offensive schemes as he set a new NFL record for touchdown receptions by a TE with 14. His numbers made him not only the top ranking player at his position, but put him right there near the top of the list of all receivers in fantasy leagues.

If you aren’t fortunate enough to snatch Gronk in this year’s draft, there are plenty of other great options in the strong group that will be on display in the 2012 season:

Aaron Hernandez is the dynamic other half of the Patriots impressive dual-tight end look. Hernandez provided Tom Brady with another great option in addition to Gronkowski and the dependable Wes Welker. Of course, his value is diminished a bit by having to share the spotlight, but he is still sure to have ample opportunity to deliver big plays for the Pats.

Jimmy Graham leads all TEs in receptions, racking up more than 1,300 receiving yards and scoring 11 TDs in 2011. If it weren’t for Gronkowski, he would be the clear cut #1 TE for this year’s fantasy rankings. He still may end up being the best if he manages to maintain his high level game, especially with Robert Meachem gone.

Jason Witten had a mediocre campaign last season, coming up short up 1,000 receiving yards and only 5 TDs. He is more talented than he sometimes gets credit for, and is still one of the more durable options in this category, having started every game for the last five seasons. Also, Tony Romo loves him. Like every year, the optimism for Dallas is high, and so it should be for Witten too. He will be a solid contributor.

Jermichael Finley was plagued by dropped-ball syndrome and hurt by the emergence of Jordy Nelson last season.  Going into 2012, those problems will spark doubts, but there should be no questions about his awesome skill set. Finley is looking for a bounceback season, and he may break out since he is now reached the magical point of a full season removed from his knee injury.