Nelson’s Mock Draft 2.0

We are now just 23 days away from the 2013 NFL Draft.  As promised, scoutPRO expert Nelson Sousa is back to unveil his Mock Draft 2.0.  Let’s check it out:

1.  Kansas City Chiefs:  Luke Joeckel, OT, Texas A&M

2.  Jacksonville Jaguars:  Dion Jordan, DE, Oregon

3.  Oakland Raiders:  Sharrif Floyd, DT, Florida

4.  Philadelphia Eagles:  Star Lotulelei, DT, Utah

5.  Detroit Lions:  Dee Milliner, CB, Alabama

6.  Cleveland Browns:  Barkevious Mingo, DE, LSU

7.  Arizona Cardinals:  Eric Fisher, OT, Central Michigan

8.  Buffalo Bills:  Geno Smith, QB, West Virginia

9.  New York Jets:  Kenny Vaccaro, SS, Texas

10.  Tennessee Titans:  Jonathan Cooper, OG, North Carolina

11.  San Diego Chargers:  Lane Johnson, OT, Oklahoma

12.  Miami Dolphins:  Xavier Rhodes, CB, Florida State

13.  Tampa Bay Buccaneers:  Ziggy Ansah, DE, Brigham Young

14.  Carolina Panthers:  Tavon Austin, WR, West Virginia

15.  New Orleans Saints:  Bjoern Werner, DE, Florida State

16.  St. Louis Rams:  Jarvis Jones, LB, Georgia

17.  Pittsburgh Steelers:  D.J Fluker, OT, Alabama

18.  Dallas Cowboys:  Menelik Watson, OT, Florida State

19.  New York Giants:  Justin Pugh, OT, Syracuse

20.  Chicago Bears:  Chance Warmack, OG, Alabama

21.  Cincinnati Bengals:  Giovani Bernard, RB, North Carolina

22.  St. Louis Rams:  Matt Elam, FS, Florida

23.  Minnesota Vikings:  Desmond Trufant, CB, Washington

24.  Indianapolis Colts:  Sheldon Richardson, DT, Missouri

25.  Minnesota Vikings:  Keenan Allen, WR, California

26.  Green Bay Packers:  Eric Reid, FS, LSU

27.  Houston Texans:  Tyler Eifert, TE, Notre Dame

28.  Denver Broncos:  Sylvester Williams, DT, North Carolina

29.  New England Patriots:  Robert Woods, WR, USC

30.  Atlanta Falcons:  D.J. Hayden, CB, Houston

31.  San Francisco 49ers:  Margus Hunt, DE, SMU

32.  Baltimore Ravens:  Kevin Minter, LB, LSU

Nelson will continue to update his mock draft, so make sure to keep coming back over the next few weeks.  Don’t forget to follow us (@CSAscoutPRO) and Nelson (@The_Franchise12) on Twitter!

Fantasy Implications from Free Agency

While there are some free agents still on the market, most of the big names have already signed and are gearing up for the 2013 season.  For those of you looking to get a head start on your fantasy research, scoutPRO expert Nelson Sousa is here to talk about the fantasy implications of all the free agent moves.  Let’s see what he has to say:

Wes Welker

With Welker heading west to Denver, he will continue to compete with some talented players for receptions, just like in New England.  The only difference is he must now compete with WRs rather than TEs (Demaryius Thomas/Eric Decker vs. Rob Gronkowski/ Aaron Hernandez).  Although Decker runs shorter routes in a similar fashion to Welker, I think they can coexist along with Thomas.  On the flip side, I see Thomas’s value going up.  He will continue to be a threat on deep routes, which will lead to explosive plays for the 4th year pro.  As for Welker, he will continue to be a valuable fantasy WR and his role in Denver will be basically the same.  All in all, more weapons for Peyton Manning means nothing but good things for him.  His first year in Denver was a huge success, and adding a weapon like Welker will only add to his value.

Adding Welker will only help the Broncos already talented group of WRs.

Steven Jackson

Honestly, I haven’t been a fan of his for a few years now.  But that was in part to him being on a terrible St. Louis Rams team.  With him now in Atlanta, my views have changed.  The Falcons have one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL, with a bunch of guys to account for on each and every play.  With that being said, I think Jackson is going to have a really good year.  He won’t face many guys in the box due to Julio Jones and Roddy White garnering so much attention on the outside.  Michael Turner ran out of gas two years ago and still managed to put up decent numbers in this offense (double digit TDs both years).  Jackson still has some gas left in the tank, and he could have a monster year for the defending NFC South champions.  I could see a 1,300 yard, 15 TD season, while at a minimum he should be able to top 1,000 yards with 10 TDs.

Percy Harvin

While he was acquired via trade rather than free agency, nonetheless he is a big time fantasy player and will continue to do the same thing in Seattle.  The Seahawks are a run-heavy team, but they are much different from Minnesota.  Harvin was having a really good year in 2012 before he got injured and I expect the same from him in 2013.  If he can stay healthy, he will no doubt be a top fantasy WR.

Jared Cook

The Rams shelled out some big time cash ($16 million guaranteed) for the former Tennessee Titan, so I expect them to actually use Cook in their offense unlike the Titans.  If they don’t, Rams GM Les Snead will be sharpening his resume in a few years.  Since the Rams already have Lance Kendricks at TE, I believe Rams HC Jeff Fisher is looking to go New England style with two TE sets.  Kendricks and Cook are different types of players just like Gronk and Hernandez.  Cook is a big, fast and physical target, while Kendricks is pretty quick for a TE.  I really like him this year and will be interested to see how this plays out.

Cook is one of the most physically gifted players in the NFL.

Mike Wallace

Wallace reaped the benefits of free agency by signing a lucrative deal with the Dolphins worth over $60 million.  I am a little unsure about this and I think the jury is definitely still out on him.  Dolphins QB Ryan Tannehill is a good player, but he is not Ben Roethlisberger.  He will now being lining up opposite Brian Hartline, who is a good WR, but nothing special.  I think it could be a struggle for Wallace in his first year as a Dolphin.  Defenses will look to take away the deep ball from him by playing man coverage with a safety deep.  That is where he does a ton of damage, which could no doubt affect his fantasy value.

Danny Amendola

With Wes Welker gone, Amendola is now the man at WR in New England.  Since Donald Jones is currently slated to be the #2 WR, more moves are in store for the Patriots.  There is no way they are going to go into the season with him at that position.  Something is going to happen, whether it is a trade or free agent acquisition (Emmanuel Sanders?).  Along the same lines, I think they are going to run more 3 TE sets this year with Jake Ballard as the 3rd TE, and put a greater emphasis on the power running game.  Back to Amendola, he is a feisty, motivated player who has had some bad breaks with injuries over the past few seasons.  He has had no consistency in his career up until last year, but that was catching passes from Sam Bradford and dealing with the Rams turnstile offensive line.  Now insert Tom Brady and the Patriots dynamic offense into that last sentence and the future could be bright.  I will wait to see what else the Patriots do this offseason before I make a final judgment on him.

Reggie Bush

This was one I called from the beginning, and signing with the Lions was something that just made sense for him.  They are looking for a guy to replace Jahvid Best, who has been severely affected by concussions his entire career.  I like Bush this year and am going to be targeting him in my drafts.  He has the potential for 75 catches in this offense as he has the ability to line up all over the field (backfield, slot, out wide).  With defenses focusing on trying to contain Calvin Johnson, Bush should be able to get some favorable matchups that he can exploit.  He is going to get a full workload (Leshoure will get some short yardage carries and the occasional drive).  Factoring in all of these things, I see the potential for a big year from Bush.

Bush could be in for a big year in 2013.

Greg Jennings

By signing with Minnesota, it looks as though Jennings chose money over winning and competing for Super Bowls.  Green Bay made him an offer, and there were reports that New England did as well.  If this is true, I’m not sure how you can justify choosing Christian Ponder over Aaron Rodgers or Tom Brady.  The good news about Minnesota is they do not have many weapons and Jennings will no doubt get a ton of targets.  Teams will continue to focus on containing Adrian Peterson, giving Jennings the opportunity to surprise some of the people who are already writing him off.  He will still go fairly high in drafts, but I believe he will fly a bit under-the-radar.  I could see him going in the 6th round, and I would have no problem drafting him there.

Dustin Keller

Keller had some ups and downs in his time with the New York Jets.  He had his moments with some big games, but could never find any consistency.  With the combination of bad QB play, a bad OC in Tony Sparano and just an overall bad team, it wasn’t exactly a recipe for success.  Couple that with some injuries problems in 2012 and Keller was probably thrilled to be a free agent.  Ryan Tannehill is heading into his second year in the league and will improve, but there is no better safety valve for a young QB than a TE.  Additionally, Mike Wallace is going to draw a ton of attention from opposing defenses when he is on the field.  This situation could lead to Keller catching a lot of passes and being Tannehill’s best friend out on the field.

Rashard Mendenhall

I have been high on Ryan Williams for a while now, so it was a shame to see the Cardinals sign Mendenhall.  New Cardinals HC Bruce Arians trusts him from his time working with him in Pittsburgh.  Mendenhall could get a shot to carry the load at RB.  Both guys have had injury problems, so it will be interesting to see what plays out with the situation.

Shonn Greene

Many were surprised when he signed with the Titans, but personally I was not.  They need to keep Chris Johnson fresh and can’t wear him down.  His 2009 season when he went for over 2,000 yards may have messed with his head.  Nowadays, he is always dancing and looking to hit the homerun, rather than just trying to gain what is there.  All the fault cannot be put on his shoulders as the ball is often forced to him.  With Greene now in town, maybe he can apply a little pressure to Johnson and force him to step up his game.

Will Chris Johnson step his game up with Greene in town?

Danny Woodhead and Ronnie Brown

With Brown re-signing and Woodhead coming in from New England, this could ultimately put a damper on Ryan Mathews’ value.  I have been a fan of his, however he just hasn’t been able to put it all together (did have a nice run down the stretch in 2011).  With a new coaching staff in town, that should mean nothing but good things for the offensive line, which was nothing short of pathetic in 2012.  It remains to be seen how this will impact Mathews.  While he may drop in draft position, that could present a buying opportunity for owners willing to give him another shot.

How will Mathews' stock be affected by Woodhead and Brown?

Brandon Myers

He will replace Martellus Bennett in New York.  Personally, I don’t think he is all that good.  He will catch some passes, but don’t expect anything special.  The Giants offense is the Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz show and will continue to be in 2013.  Also, they don’t feature the TE as much as other teams around the league.  If you look back to last year, Bennett started the season on fire, catching a TD in each of the first three games.  After week three, he was basically nowhere to be found the rest of the season.

James Casey

Casey signed a three-year deal with the Eagles worth $14 million.  He will be an afterthought to most, which will allow you to pick him up much later in drafts.  While playing for the Texans, he lined up all over the field (fullback, H-back, tight end).  His versatility is something that new Eagles HC Chip Kelly loves and was one of the main reasons they targeted him.  Look for him to pair with Brent Celek in two TE sets, with Casey being the Aaron Hernandez of the offense.  Celek will be the in-line guy and focus on blocking.  I think Casey could explode this year and be a great pickup as a 2nd TE.

Delanie Walker

The Titans got one of the best blocking TEs in the NFL when they signed Walker.  While they are going to focus on running the ball, don’t sleep on him.  He had some drop issues last season, but he could get some opportunities with Jared Cook no longer around.

Martellus Bennett 

I think this is a good signing by Chicago.  They desperately need some more weapons for Jay Cutler, and Bennett will provide a big target for him.  He can also block, which is always helpful in the run game.  Overall, he is a solid TE and a nice pickup by the Bears.

Bennett will be a nice addition for Jay Cutler and the Bears.

Thanks for stopping by!  If you like mock drafts, make sure to keep coming back over the next few weeks as Nelson will be updating his right up until the 2013 NFL Draft.  Don’t forget to follow us (@CSAscoutPRO) and Nelson (@The_Franchise12) on Twitter!

 

 

Nelson’s Mock Draft 1.0

With Pro Days wrapping up in the next few days, it will be no time before the top college prospects are gathering in New York City for the 2013 NFL Draft.  We are now less than a month away from the big day when the next round of fantasy football stars will get the phone call of a lifetime.  To help you prepare, scoutPRO expert Nelson Sousa is here to unveil his Mock Draft 1.0.  Let’s see what he has to say:

1.  Kansas City Chiefs:  Luke Joeckel, OT, Texas A&M

2.  Jacksonville Jaguars:  Dion Jordan, DE, Oregon

3.  Oakland Raiders:  Geno Smith, QB, West Virginia

4.  Philadelphia Eagles:  Star Lotulelei, DT, Utah

5.  Detroit Lions:  Dee Milliner, CB, Alabama

6.  Cleveland Browns:  Sharrif Floyd, DT, Florida

7.  Arizona Cardinals:  Eric Fisher, OT, Central Michigan

8.  Buffalo Bills:  Ryan Nassib, QB, Syracuse

9.  New York Jets:  Kenny Vaccaro, SS, Texas

10.  Tennessee Titans:  Jonathan Cooper, OG, North Carolina

11.  San Diego Chargers:  Lane Johnson, OT, Oklahoma

12.  Miami Dolphins:  Xavier Rhodes, CB, Florida State

13.  Tampa Bay Buccaneers:  Ziggy Ansah, DE, Brigham Young

14.  Carolina Panthers:  Sheldon Richardson, DT, Missouri

15.  New Orleans Saints:  Barkevious Mingo, DE, LSU

16.  St. Louis Rams:  Jarvis Jones, LB, Georgia

17.  Pittsburgh Steelers:  D.J Fluker, OT, Alabama

18.  Dallas Cowboys:  Bjoern Werner, DE, Florida State

19.  New York Giants:  Menelik Watson, OT, Florida State

20.  Chicago Bears:  Tavon Austin, WR, West Virginia

21.  Cincinnati Bengals:  Eddie Lacy, RB, Alabama

22.  St. Louis Rams:  Matt Elam, FS, Florida

23.  Minnesota Vikings:  Desmond Trufant, CB, Washington

24.  Indianapolis Colts:  Chance Warmack, OG, Alabama

25.  Minnesota Vikings:  Keenan Allen, WR, California

26.  Green Bay Packers:  Eric Reid, FS, LSU

27.  Houston Texans:  Cordarrelle Patterson, WR, Tennessee

28.  Denver Broncos:  Sylvester Williams, DT, North Carolina

29.  New England Patriots:  Robert Woods, WR, USC

30.  Atlanta Falcons:  Tyler Eifert, TE, Notre Dame

31.  San Francisco 49ers:  Margus Hunt, DE, SMU

32.  Baltimore Ravens:  Kevin Minter, LB, LSU

Nelson will continue to update his mock draft, so make sure to keep coming back over the next few weeks.  Don’t forget to follow us (@CSAscoutPRO) and Nelson (@The_Franchise12) on Twitter!

Free Agency Preview – WR’s

With the Combine getting started this weekend, it will only be a few weeks before free agency begins.  scoutPRO expert Nelson Sousa is back to talk about the talented group of free agents WR’s.  Any team in need of some help has plenty of options to consider, including some big names.

Greg Jennings

In my opinion, I think he is the best of the bunch and the most valuable.  He can play on the outside, in the slot, has a great work ethic and no off the field problems like some other free agent WR’s (Dwayne Bowe and Mike Wallace).  Miami seems like a logical fit, as they are desperate for a WR1.  Also, they are way under the salary cap and have plenty of money to spend.  Dolphins HC Joe Philbin was Green Bay’s OC from 2007-2011, and during that period Jennings averaged over 1,100 yards per season while hauling in 46 TD’s.  Philbin is clearly familiar with him and I’m sure Ryan Tannehill wouldn’t mind throwing to the two time Pro Bowler.

Possible destinations:  Dolphins

Will Jennings take his talents to South Beach?

Mike Wallace

I think he is right behind Jennings in this class and could see the Chiefs making a run at him if they don’t end up keeping Dwayne Bowe.  New Chiefs HC Andy Reid likes smaller, faster WR’s (Desean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin), and that’s exactly what Wallace brings to the table.  He can really stretch a defense deep with his 4.3 speed, evidenced by his 21 yards per reception in 2010.  If they want similar money, I think Kansas City would choose Wallace over Bowe.  The Dolphins are another team that could target Wallace.  They are weak at WR and could definitely benefit from his big play ability.

Possible destinations:  Chiefs, Dolphins

Wes Welker

First off, I think the Patriots are going to trade for Percy Harvin.  Bill Belichick likes him and he can step into Welker’s role while injecting some youth and speed into the offense.  Furthermore, Harvin can stretch a defense deep and also line up in the backfield.  With that being said, they are going to let Welker walk.  He is going to get quite a bit of money and should attract attention from multiple teams.  It all depends on cap room, but one team that makes sense is Dallas.  Miles Austin is always hurt and Welker would pair well with Dez Bryant.  Cowboys’ owner Jerry Jones could view him as the piece to get them over the hump into the playoffs while providing a safety valve for Tony Romo.  Denver would also be a good fit.  He could be that slot guy, but with two young WR’s in Eric Decker and Demaryius Thomas who are going to need new contracts soon, it might not work financially.  The Bengals are in need of playmakers to go with A.J. Green, and he would be a great complement to him.  This is a playoff caliber team, but they still need a guy like Welker to solidify the offense and help Andy Dalton out.  A few more teams that make sense are the Falcons and Steelers.  If Tony Gonzalez does end up retiring and they don’t sign a free agent TE, he could step in and take his catches in the middle.  That’s a big part of their offense, and Welker would pair well with outside threats Julio Jones and Roddy White.  Lastly, if Mike Wallace ends up leaving Pittsburgh, they are going to need a new WR.

Possible destinations:  Cowboys, Bengals, Falcons, Steelers, Broncos

Welker has had 100+ catches in five of the last six seasons.

Dwayne Bowe

He is no doubt a talented player, but his off the field issues will raise concern with anyone looking to sign him.  From conditioning and work ethic questions to a suspension for using performance-enhancing drugs, he has quite a bit of baggage attached to his name.   A team with a veteran coach who can control him would be an ideal fit for Bowe.  If Mike Wallace leaves Pittsburgh, the Steelers could work.  Mike Tomlin is a no-nonsense kind of guy and would provide some tough love that Bowe needs.  Although he had some run-ins with Todd Haley while he was in Kansas City (now the Steelers OC), Bowe had his most productive seasons under Haley.  He had back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons in 2010 and 2011, notching a career best 15 TD’s in 2010.  Another team that could make sense is Minnesota.  If they end up trading Harvin like I have predicted, they will be left with basically nothing at the WR position.  Adrian Peterson can’t do everything, so they would have to make some moves and get Christian Ponder some weapons to work with.

Possible destinations:  Steelers, Vikings

Thanks for stopping by!  Come back next week for Nelson’s review of the NFL Combine.  Don’t forget to follow us on Twitter at @CSAscoutPRO!  

 

Week 16 – All on the Line

This is it. It’s championship week in most leagues, and if your team is going to win the Super Bowl, it’s going to take some smart moves when it comes to who to start and who to sit. We thought we would go simple and just offer our thoughts on some start/sit decisions that could mean the difference when everything is on the line. Besides the obvious plays, here are our thoughts:

QBs
Start ‘Em:

Tony Romo, DAL – The Cowboys need to win to stay alive, and despite shutting out Tampa Bay last week, the Saints’ D is historically bad.

Andrew Luck – The rookie has a juicy matchup against the abysmal Kansas City Chiefs.

Colin Kaepernick, SF – The Niners’ QB moving forward has been playing really well and is a constant threat to run. Even against a stout Seahawks’ Defense, he has the skill set to produce every week.

Colin Kaepernick Keeps Proving Himself a Viable QB1.

Sit ‘Em:

Eli Manning, NYG – Eli has been frustrating owners for the past several weeks.

Matt Stafford, DET – It is hard to trust Stafford with his limited options besides Megatron. The Falcons will be looking to make another statement Saturday night.

Joe Flacco, BAL – Flacco’s critics have been validated as of late. He has shown an inability to achieve any kind of consistency. Keep him off the roster in the championship matchup.

Playing Eli Manning Carries a High Risk of Late

WRs
Start ‘Em:

Randall Cobb, GB – Quietly had his second straight 100-yard outing, and the Titans’ secondary is suspect.

Pierre Garcon, WAS – Whether it’s RG3 or KC1, he is the Skins’ top target.

Cecil Shorts, JAX – Didn’t miss a beat coming back from his concussion. The Patriots have allowed 270.3 passing YPG.

Sit ‘Em:

Jeremy Maclin, PHI – Has been hot lately, but that likely ends Sunday against a hungry Washington team.

Larry Fitzgerald, ARI – Nobody thought we’d be saying this, but without a real QB and against a solid Bears defense, there’s not much upside.

Torrey Smith, BAL – Don’t be too eager slotting Smith back in following his concussion if he plays – he had just one catch on 3 targets before getting hurt in the third quarter.

RBs
Start ‘Em:

Vick Ballard, IND – Ballard has come on lately, establishing himself as a consistent producer, and the KC defense doesn’t seem capable of shutting down anybody.

DeAngelo Williams, CAR– With Jonathan Stewart out the past two weeks with a high ankle sprain, Williams has been getting the job done nicely, and has the potential to break out with big plays at any moment in a game.

Stevan Ridley, NE – Ridley’s poor performance against the 49ers gets avenged in garbage time against lowly Jacksonville.

Sit ‘Em:

Michael Turner, ATL – Looking past his scores in 5 straight games, the Burner is averaging just 42.4 YPG. Risky.

Shonn Greene, NYJ – He’s steady enough of a performer, but Bilal Powell’s work has diminished his value greatly.

BenJarvus Green-Ellis – The Law Firm has had a hot streak, but Pittsburgh’s run defense is among the best in the league. The Bengals will have to play in the air to win.

TEs
Start ‘Em:

Jermaine Gresham, CIN – The Steelers will be looking to shut down Andy Dalton’s biggest weapon in A.J. Green, opening the door for the big man Gresham to get plenty of looks.

Heath Miller, PIT – Averaging 85 yards in the last 3 games with two TDs to show for it. Miller played a big role in the Steelers’ first meeting with Cincinnati this season.

Greg Olsen, CAR – Oakland has allowed plenty of tight end touchdowns this season. Olsen is a favorite Cam Newton target, with 747 yards on the year.

Sit ‘Em:

Dennis Pitta, BAL – His stock has never been higher, but it’s just not likely to see a repeat performance of Week 15 against a desperate Giants squad.

Vernon Davis, SF – He just missed a beautiful TD pass against New England, but Davis has gone virtually invisible the second half of this season.

scoutPRO wishes all the GMs competing for league titles the best of luck, and make sure to brag about your victory to us on Twitter at @csascoutpro !

Week 14 – Playoff Implications

There are just 3 more weeks remaining in the NFL schedule, and fantasy owners know what that means. Most leagues kick off the playoffs this week. Those of you who failed to make the cut, you should have subscribed to scoutPRO! There is ALWAYS next year!

For those who made it in, congratulations! The pressure is on now, as every matchup is win or go home. The big prize is just a few short weeks away, and here are some storylines that will help make sure you take home the hardware and the bragging rights you deserve.

Watch Your Matchups

Weeks  14-17 are without a doubt the most important to consider what quality of opponent your roster players are facing. A particularly tough matchup could cost you valuable points in a critical situation, while on the other hand, looking to start players with high upside vs. favorable matchups can be the most direct way to a W. Joe Flacco’s matchup vs. a porous Washington defense in Week 14 is a juicy example. Flacco hasn’t been quite as good on the road as at home in 2012, but the Skins have had trouble stopping the air game all season.

You might want consider dropping your stronger team DEF for one with a weak schedule. Pittsburgh’s stout D faces tough tests in Weeks 15 and 16 with desperate and talented offenses from Dallas and Cincinnati, and could be a risky play. Denver faces Oakland, Cleveland, and Kansas City in 3 of its final 4, a safer schedule with much higher upside.

Star Players Resting Up

As some of the better teams lock up playoff spots and byes, a handful of star performers will plant themselves on the bench to avoid unnecessary injuries and rest up for the playoff push. This year is especially interesting , with four teams already clinching earlier than usual.

Keep an eye locked on this storyline, but Arian Foster may be benched soon, as the Texans are looking a sure bet for a first round bye. Backup Ben Tate is already starting to fly off the shelves in most leagues. Also, veteran receiver Roddy White and TE Tony Gonzalez could be watching from the sidelines with the Falcons sitting pretty in the NFC. There might be much more value from players on teams fighting for a spot, like the Seahawks’ Golden Tate or the Colts’ Donnie Avery.

Arian Foster may spend some time on the bench in the last few weeks of the season

Some Bigger Names Not Worth the Trouble

Injuries have plagued Jordy Nelson, and with the return of Greg Jennings, the standout WR may not be worth the trouble for his frustrated owners. Denarius Moore has been the focus of opposing defenses after a great first half – now he is struggling to produce, and doesn’t merit a start with the playoffs on the line. Jay Cutler is a legitimate #1 fantasy QB, with Brandon Marshall at his service, but coming off some iffy weeks and facing off with stronger defenses in his division, run with a quality backup if you have one.

 

Jordy Nelson and his nagging injury is one example of a usual must-start player being relegated to bench status for the playoffs

scoutPRO wishes all the teams vying for their league titles good luck this week! Check back in next week for insights on Week 15, and check out www.scoutpro.com for the latest projections and insights from our Fantasy Expert Nelson Sousa.

Week 13 – The Replacements

Desperate times call for desperate measures.  With the fantasy playoffs fast approaching, many owners have their backs against the walls trying to make the cut and extend the season. Bye weeks are history, but injury problems only continue piling up, with Bears’ RB Matt Forte at the top of the list of players who went down in Week 12.

Matt Forte's injury is causing headaches for fantasy owners headed towards the playoffs

As a result of all the turmoil in the NFL, many leagues are seeing pickups of players whose names have never before been mentioned in the realm of fantasy football. Some have been eye-catching surprises, while others have barely delivered on already-low expectations. Here is what you need to know:

The emergence of Colin Kaepernick in San Francisco has created a bit of a quarterback controversy, as Alex Smith owners face the frustration of having a fairly reliable quarterback relegated to the bench. Kaepernick has shown himself to be a dynamic run/pass QB, racking up impressive point totals in each of his first two starts, both wins for his club. If you were fortunate enough to pick him up, he is worth a start until further notice, and if he is still available, snatch him up for depth and to keep the competition at bay.

When Willis McGahee went down with a severe knee injury that landed him on the IR, many owners scrambled to pick up Ronnie Hillman as a replacement. Those owners were undoubtedly disappointed when the Broncos went with Knowshon Moreno instead, and the former Georgia Bulldog put in a nice day’s work against the Chiefs while Hillman rode the bench. It seems Denver doesn’t quite trust the rookie with the protection of its most prized asset, Peyton Manning, so look for Moreno to continue getting the majority of snaps going forward.

Knowshon Moreno will have to carry the majority of the workload in McGahee's absence

Bryce Brown stepped into the spotlight on Monday Night on the national stage in the absence of LeSean McCoy for Philadelphia. He scored twice, including a 65 yard rush that made his owners very happy. He had some trouble controlling the ball, which may be a concern, but the Eagles might have little incentive to rush McCoy back without a shot at the postseason – roll with Brown in the meantime.

The abomination that was the Steelers’ performance against lowly division foes the Browns on Sunday was characterized by 8 turnovers – 3 interceptions and 5 fumbles by 5 different players. Right now, Pittsburgh’s replacement backup QB Charlie Batch is on the ‘avoid-at-all-costs’ list, and its corps of RBs aren’t bringing much value to the table, even Rashard Mendenhall, who hasn’t found his groove since returning from injury.

On a related note, Seahawks cornerbacks Richard Sherman and Brandon Browner have been suspended for the use of banned substances, which makes Seattle’s secondary extremely thin. Upcoming matchups with the Bears, Cardinals, Bills, and 49ers make for some prime opportunities for opposing QBs and WRs against the Hawks’ own replacements, a drastically different outlook than suggested by Seattle’s strong defensive numbers this season.

scoutPRO Fantasy Football Expert Nelson Sousa will be appearing on Sirius radio to talk all things fantasy football this Thursday, November 29. Follow scoutPRO on Twitter for the latest details.

Week 12 – More Injury Troubles

This 2012 season has been no bargain for fantasy GMs, with an epidemic of injuries to key players, especially as of late. Weeks 10 and 11 have been a nightmare scenario, taking out several top QBs, RBs, and now a standout TE who is as valuable as any player in the league. The trade deadline in your league may have passed, and the implications of these injuries have become even more severe as we approach fantasy postseason weeks. Here is what you need to know:

In as a replacement for Michael Vick, rookie Nick Foles failed to impress, and RB LeSean McCoy also went down to injury, leaving the Eagles with very few options on the offensive side of the ball. Other Eagles players will suffer as a result, so be conservative in expectations for DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin, and others.

Steelers QB  Ben Roethlisberger will remain out of commission for at least a few more weeks, and those who thought Byron Leftwich would be a viable backup were disappointed as he too suffered a rib injury in Week 11. Third stringer Charlie Batch isn’t quite as attractive an option.

The Steelers Will Suffer Without Big Ben

Jay Cutler missed Monday night’s matchup with the 49ers and Brandon Marshall owners are lamenting. Matt Forte’s value may increase as a result, as a consolation prize to his owners, who are probably dealing with some other injuries as well.

Blaine Gabbert, who isn’t generally part of the fantasy discussion, suffered an injury of his own, opening the door for Chad Henne, who had a surprising big day, against a top rated Houston D nonetheless. Henne looks to be one of the most popular waiver wire pickups this week for owners dealing with injured QBs, as he should be the guy going forward in Jacksonville, at least temporarily.

After Alex Smith suffered a concussion last week and failed to pass testing for clearance this weekend,  Colin Kaepernick stepped in with a breakout performance against a solid Bears defense on Monday night  and may have sparked a quarterback controversy in San Francisco. Smith owners might be wise to pick up Kaepernick just in case.

The Broncos’ veteran RB Willis McGahee, should be out for the rest of the fantasy year after suffering a break and an MCL injury in his knee. He had been a pleasant surprise top 15 RB, balancing Peyton Mannings air attack in Denver. Obviously the injury has implications for Manning and his receiver corps of Demaryius Thomas, Eric Decker, and Brandon Stokley, but owners looking to replace McGahee should consider backup Ronnie Hillman, who has looked good on carries all year, thanks to a solid O-line who will give him ample opportunity for yardage up the middle.

McGahee had been a fantasy surprise before his injury

Perhaps the biggest injury news of the week came in garbage time during the Patriots’ blowout of the Colts in New England. Rob Gronkowski suffered a broken forearm that might put him out for the remainder of the fantasy season just after becoming the first TE ever to score 10+ TDs in 3 consecutive seasons. This is a huge blow for the star’s owners, but a boon for those with Aaron Hernandez, whose value will skyrocket if he can shake his own nagging injury. WR Julian Edelman may see an expanded role – he is worth a look, especially if Hernandez isn’t at 100%. Owners missing Gronk might be able to stop the bleeding with Ben Watson or Mercedes Lewis, both who have been much more involved in their respective offenses as of late, and should be available on waivers.

The Pats will have to survive without the NFL's strongest TE

Week 9 – Look into the Crystal Ball

Every week in the NFL has storylines that take twists and turns. Who predicted that Doug Martin would have a breakout game against a stout Minnesota D? Pittsburgh’s defense is notoriously solid, but hopefully you weren’t relying on RG3 to win your week as he delivered his worst performance of the season. The most successful fantasy owners know that in reality, there is some degree of order behind all the chaos and unpredictability. Looking at the information that matters most can reveal insights into who will get the job done and who will fizzle out each week.

Division matchups

We have seen it time and time again; players step up to perform in big games. In the NFL, games between division rivals carry more weight, and there is a special air around these matchups. Even a fantasy slouch like Mark Sanchez is almost guaranteed to play a solid game when up against his archrival New England Patriots.

It Happened in Week 8: Alex Smith and Michael Crabtree had a big night on Monday vs. Arizona. The Cardinals, especially the defense, may be overrated, but the game was still for first place in the division. Smith and his most targeted receiver both stepped up their game for some of their best fantasy performances of the season. Both have shown they can be counted on in the clutch, so start them going forward in games with implications.

It Will Happen in Week 9: There aren’t a ton of division games on the slate in Week 9, but look for Philip Rivers, Ryan Mathews, and the rest of the Chargers’ offense to take care of business and have a drastically better week against their lowly division foe Kansas City.

Individual Player Trends

It’s risky to put too much stock into streaks, but recognizing a player filling a consistent role in an offense is a good way to ensure a solid fantasy performance.

It Happened in Week 8: After 4 straight weeks with a reception of 50+ yards, Chris Givens made it 5 in a row and scored a touchdown on the play. Owners who picked up the St. Louis wide out to fill a hole left by injuries or byes were rewarded for recognizing this obvious trend. Sam Bradford is bound to continue looking for Givens downfield, often to the endzone, plays that carry big upside, even if he only reels in one per game.

It Will Happen in Week 9: Josh Freeman has been consistently outperforming fantasy expectations, and as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers continue to try and prove that they, like their quarterback, are underrated, he may deserve a starting roster spot in many situations.  After throwing 16 TDs against 22 INTs last year, he has turned it around and been highly consistent, already delivering 14 TDs vs. just 5 picks. A matchup vs. a mediocre Oakland defense would suggest the trend continues.

Josh Freeman has had a few great fantasy weeks

Game Conditions

It Happened in Week 8: Both Brandon Weeden and Philip Rivers struggled mightily to throw the football in heavy rains in Cleveland. A 7-6 final score isn’t what any fantasy owner is looking for.

It Will Happen in Week 9: The Packers host the Cardinals at Lambeau Field on Sunday, and as the season turns and it starts to get colder up North, the Pack will flourish more and more, as they do every year on the Frozen Tundra. Receivers like Jordy Nelson and the emerging Randall Cobb used to handling the ball in the cold will have decided advantages vs. opposing defenses.

One more tip from the pros: Follow the latest projections on www.scoutpro.com to see what the insiders already know about this week’s games!

Week 5 – Proof is in the Pudding

Last year, in Week 5, Victor Cruz put up a 161 yard game, establishing himself as a must-own player after being undrafted in just about every league. So far in 2012, no player has had such a grand coming-out party as Cruz had in 2011, but after Cruz caught 3 more TD passes Sunday afternoon, we were reminded that there are new stars born in this league every week. On the flipside, for some, glory quickly fades as hyped up players fail to meet expectations, causing their eager owners headaches.

It is too early to call them ‘sleepers’ or ‘busts’ yet, but here are some surprising players who have been undervalued and a few some notable names who have been way overvalued in 2012:

Alfred Morris is enjoying a great start to his career

The Good:

Stevan Ridley – Led by perennial stud QB Tom Brady, the Patriots’ offense is on pace to break a team record for first downs and yardage they set last year.  It doesn’t seem like news, but it is most interesting that the team is getting the job done rushing the ball. Yes, despite Brady’s penchant for throwing the ball on a vast majority of downs, the improved Pats run game is being led by Ridley, who has already eclipsed his totals in all categories from last year.  He had an average draft position outside the top 60, but Ridley is ready for the spotlight.

Eli Manning – Somehow, after winning his second Super Bowl, Eli still lives in the shadow of big brother Peyton. This year, his Giants offense looks strong – he has already thrown for more than 1500 yards, second behind only Drew Brees, and the G-Men favor the pass in the Red Zone, averaging a cool 2 TD passes per game. Until anything changes, Eli is making his case as a pretty strong #1 going forward.

Percy Harvin – Things are good in Minnesota for Harvin. The Vikings’ WR had a big Week 5, and it shouldn’t have been a big surprise. His team is 4-1 and he is enjoying a resurgent season catching passes, running the ball, and racking up return yards, which boosts his value significantly in some scoring formats. He is getting plenty of attention when the Vikings get near the goal line, which owners should love.

Reggie Wayne – There is a curious situation developing in Indianapolis. The Colts are not deep in receivers, and rookie Andrew Luck doesn’t really have a solid second WR option behind an old veteran who is past his heyday.  Every defense knows Wayne’s name, but he is still managing to shine on the field in a way he hasn’t for quite a while. At the height of Peyton Manning’s career in Indy, Wayne wouldn’t be considered under-the-radar at all, but his success this season is still surprising and downright impressive.

Alfred Morris – RG3 has been the darling of the fantasy world as a breakout rookie star in Washington, but his teammate Morris has been punishing defenses and racking up points on the ground. The 6th round draft pick out of unglamorous Florida-Atlantic University has produced numbers right on par with the highly touted star RB of this year’s draft class, Trent Richardson, a pleasant surprise for the owners who snatched him up. Again, he was not totally off the radar like Cruz, but Morris is the closest apparition to a true sleeper so far this year.

The Bad:

Cam Newton – Superman’s Carolina Panthers have struggled to win games in 2012, and the rising star QB is largely responsible. His offensive production isn’t bad per se, but it’s a departure from what we saw in his rookie season last year. He has thrown just 4 TD passes, and only gained 209 yards on the ground – relatively low numbers for a guy often pegged to be a human highlight reel. Right now, he is only worth the effort in 2 QB formats and deeper leagues.

Chris Johnson – CJ2K’s owners sound like a broken record with his frustrating performances to date. The former rushing champ isn’t doing anything right. Plus, Tennessee’s run blocking gives him no help, and the team falling behind early in games has meant a focus on the air game trying to play catch up, limiting his touches. Johnson is far and away the biggest disappointment among prominent players who haven’t lost time to injury like Hakeem Nicks or Aaron Hernandez.

LeSean McCoy – Before the season, many experts pegged the Eagles’ dynamic starter as a top 5 RB, but he has struggled to find the endzone, managing just 1 rushing TD so far. The Eagles have been a fantasy nightmare this year, with fumble problems, limited scoring, and plenty of inconsistency. McCoy has a couple of 100 yard games, but until the team dials it up and he starts scoring consistently, consider him a bust given the lofty expectations.

Antonio Gates – With the exception of Malcom Floyd, Chargers QB Philip Rivers hasn’t really clicked with any of his receivers this year, leading to his team ranking 19th overall in pass offense through Week 5. The big TE Gates has only totaled 143 yards in his first 4 games, and has failed to score any touchdowns. With limited depth in the tight end position across the league, Gates’ owners have to be disappointed with one of the elite options failing to deliver.

Andre Johnson – The Houston Texans have jumped out to a 5-0 start, but they have been beating sub-500 teams and their star WR isn’t even leading the team in targets. Things don’t seem quite aligned for Johnson, and he has been a non-factor in some games so far this season. Increased attention from opposing CBs and some dropped passes have brought his value down. He is still a touchdown threat, but owners are still waiting for the player they saw last year return.