If I’ve told you once, I’ve told you two times…..
And now I’m telling you a third time…… I almost positive that’s how that saying goes? Well, however you want to say it, I have decided that’s how I’m going to use it. In 2013 I told you to leave Montee Ball and his high draft price alone. Then in 2014 I told you to stay away from Bishop Sankey. Now this year I’m telling you to leave Melvin Gordon alone.
Are you going to listen? You see, I don’t trust backs from Wisconsin. They tend to struggle in the NFL after getting used to running through huge holes that the massive Badger O-line creates for them. Then they get to run for a while since those holes don’t close up that quick against slower competition. In the NFL that’s not the case. Running lanes are smaller and close up quicker than a New York minute.
So there’s my reasoning to avoid Ball and Gordon. Sankey’s issue is that he just sucks. Gordon also has to compete with Woodhead, Oliver and Brown for touches. I don’t expect to see him involved in any 3rd down or passing down packages either, so how much upside does he really have?
Really, if you think about it, it’s like buying a car. As soon as you leave the lot, its value goes down. There is only downside with drafting Gordon this year. I know it’s going to be very tempting to take the over-hyped Gordon in the 2nd or 3rd round, but if you want to stay ahead of your competition, don’t buy the vehicle – lease it….. I mean don’t buy into Gordon this year!
Looking for more advice from Nelson? Check it out here.
DeMarco Murray was an absolute monster in 2014, but that was last year. This year he actually finds himself in a pretty good situation with the Eagles. He will run behind a great O-line and in an offense committed to the run, but there are two problems.
1. Workload – History shows that backs who pass the 370 carry mark will see their production drop 25% the next year.
2. Ryan Matthews – Chip and Shurmur have both stated that they intend to have Matthews heavily involved in the offense. With the Eagles running a fast-paced offense, it does not surprise me the least bit that Kelly would want to rotate both backs throughout the game.
Murray is still young therefore I don’t expect him to just fall off of a cliff. I think he will have a solid year, just not solid enough to be a 1st round pick. With all of these factors in play, I do expect Murray’s ADP to drop as the summer rolls along. If Murray started to sneak into the 3rd round I think that would represent a buying opportunity, but until then I would layoff.
Each year as we prepare for Fantasy Football drafts, scoutPRO creates a cheat sheet to help you select the best team possible. Whether you are playing fantasy football for the first time, trying to earn bragging rights over your friends, or taking on the top competition in high stakes leagues, our cheat sheets can be your secret to success. Here’s a preview of our 2015 rankings at each position. For the full list, subscribe to scoutPRO! It’s never too early to get a jump start on the competition.
- Andrew Luck
- Aaron Rodgers
- Matt Ryan
- Drew Brees
- Peyton Manning
- Adrian Peterson
- Le’Veon Bell
- Eddie Lacy
- Jamaal Charles
- Le’Sean McCoy
- Julio Jones
- Antonio Brown
- Demaryius Thomas
- Odell Beckham Jr.
- Jordy Nelson
- Rob Gronkowski
- Jimmy Graham
- Travis Kelce
- Greg Olsen
- Julius Thomas
- Stephen Gostkowski
- Matt Prater
- Connor Barth
- Justin Tucker
- Dan Bailey
It’s never too early to start planning your NFL draft strategy, and so today we are looking ahead to potential matchups for each team during fantasy football playoff time. Below you will see the matchups for each team for weeks 14-16 (when most fantasy football playoffs take place). Nelson has some teams with great matchups and others that are more challenging. The first chart looks at matchups for the run game and the second is for WRs in the passing game.
2015 Cheat Sheet
As I sit here the morning after Super Bowl XLIX reflecting on the game and everything that surrounds it, all I can say is wow. Here are a few thoughts:
1) One decade later, Tom Brady is once again on top of the world: It should come as no surprise that Tom Brady was the Super Bowl MVP for the 3rd time in his career (just as scoutPRO predicted). Not only did he lead a balanced, methodical attack, but this time around he didn’t receive much help from the run game. Just two weeks after LeGarrette Blount’s 148 yard, 3 TD game, the Seahawks stingy D held him to just 40 yards. But Patriots fans should know better than to let that worry them. Their hero completed 37 passes for 328 yards and 4 TDs (plus two interceptions), including a perfect 8-8, 65 yard drive to steal victory from the Seahawks leaving just two minutes on the clock. He even broke Joe Montana’s record for touchdowns in the Super Bowl with 12 in his historic career.
With the Super Bowl only days away, fans all over the country are picking sides (and even placing bets) on which team will hoist the trophy on Sunday night. So far it’s almost an even split between those who think the Patriots will win and those who think the Seahawks will repeat as champs.
Diane Bloodworth, the CEO of Competitive Sports Analysis, has done her own research with the help of scoutPRO’s analytics and player projections to predict the Super Bowl MVP. That first means she has to predict the winning team. Her choice…the Patriots. She then chose Tom Brady to be MVP. Here’s a preview of her blog. Read the rest here.
“Now, in order to select the MVP, you must start by predicting the winning team. First, putting any team loyalties or personal opinions aside, we took a look at a review of the scoutPRO player analytics. These analytics incorporate both objective (statistical) and subjective data points on players and ultimately showed that New England has the superior team. In fact, most of the match-ups favored New England.”
Find out more about scoutPRO’s analytics and our algorithm used in the projections here, and join in on the conversation by following @scoutPROFantasy on Twitter.
Here’s a sneak peak at our week 17 Draft Kings Tight End Report. For the full report, subscribe to scoutPRO!
Rob Gronkowski ($7400): no value
Gronk will finish 2014 as the top rated TE; he has 82 catches for 1,124 yards with 12 TD’s on 131 targets. In week 6, Rob had 7 catches for 94 yards on 9 targets vs. the Bills, and I think he is the important offensive player for the Patriots behind Brady. New England has to protect him in this game by pulling him early as they have nothing to gain by winning or playing him. He is rated as a 30% play this week as they expect him to be in the bench early in the 2nd quarter at the latest-We are preaching to park this pony in the barn.
Our week 17 wide receiver report has all of the information you need to draft the best possible wide receivers for your Draft Kings team. Here’s a preview of a few players- for the full report, subscribe to scoutPRO!
Calvin Johnson ($8700): neutral
Calvin had his 4th 100 yard receiving game in his last 7 starts last week. During this span, he has 45 catches for 690 yards and 4 TD’s on 80 targets (103/1840 with 11 TD’s on 183 targets). Calvin has been playing like Calvin, and he can’t be ignored when he has a winning matchup. In week 3, he had 6 catches for 82 yards on 10 targets against the Packers (6/101 and 1 TD on 10 targets in 2013) and has 77 catches for 1245 yards with 12 TD’s in 13 career games against Green Bay. The Packers are 19th in the league in WR defense with 4 teams scoring more than 40 fantasy points. CB Tramon Williams has allowed 58/89 for 696 yards and 7 TD’s-Possible.
Here is a preview of our Week 17 Draft Kings Running Back. For the full report along with reports for QB, WR and TE, subscribe to scoutPRO!
DeMarco Murray ($8800): neutral
Murray was able to play through his hand injury last week, but game score led to him only playing 31 of 62 RB plays. In his last 2 games, DeMarco has 142 combined yards on 54 touches as defenses have focused on stopping the run. Romo has responded with big plays in the passing game, which will work in Murray’s favor down the road. He has 2140 combined yards with 12 TD’s and 54 catches and leads by Bell by 22 combined yards for the league lead. Dallas really has a slim chance at a first round bye, but they really need Seattle to lose. They will play this game to win with Murray seeing solid action. In week 8, DeMarco had 221 combined yards against Washington, and the Redskins are 4th in the league in RB defense with only 3 teams scoring more than 25 fantasy points. Stud back, but he may have less value in the passing game as the Cowboys really want him to avoid pass blocking-I see more steady than impactful.
Here’s a preview of our data analyst Shawn’s Week 17 Draft Kings QB Report. For all of our daily reports, subscribe to scoutPRO!
Andrew Luck ($8700): solid player with some downside risk in game
It appears that fantasy players ran out of Luck in week 16 as Andrew had his worst game of his NFL career. It was amazing to see him get the hook in the 3rd quarter. The Colts are in a position where the game has no value, which makes Luck a real tough buy this week. I’m sure Indy would like to gain some momentum with a solid game. Despite his short score, Luck is still the highest scoring QB on the year. He probably has no chance at 5000 yards passing (4601 – 296 yards in his last 2 games). In week 4, Andrew had 393 yards and 4 TD’s against the Titans. Tennessee is 10th in the league in fantasy points allowed to QB’s (Less than 20 fantasy points allowed in 8 of their last 9 games)-Pass.